Many cetacean species are at risk from anthropogenic disturbances including climate change, pollution, and habitat degradation. Identifying cetacean hotspots for conservation management is therefore required. Aotearoa–New Zealand waters are used by 53% of the world’s cetacean species and are a global cetacean diversity hotspot. Using geographic predictions of cetacean taxa, we aimed to identify important areas within New Zealand waters using two methods: estimates of cetacean richness and a spatial prioritization analysis. For both methods, we investigated how varying levels of uncertainty in predictions of the taxa’ occurrence layers would affect our interpretation of cetacean hotspots. Despite some marked spatial differences in distribution of important areas for cetacean diversity, both methods, across all uncertainty scenarios, highlighted six distinct deep offshore regions as important habitat. Generally, inshore areas had lower richness estimates than offshore areas, but these remain important for conservation for species with limited ranges (e.g., the endemic Māui and Hector’s dolphins), and in some places had similar richness values to offshore hotspots. Furthermore, inshore hotspots had lower uncertainty in predicted taxa distribution and richness estimates. The use of two different uncertainty estimates allows the integration of distributional information from differing sources (different modeling methods with varying numbers of cetacean records) to be integrated in a robust and conservative way. Identification of cetacean hotspots with varying levels of uncertainty provides a robust and efficient step toward prioritizing areas for conservation management in a participatory process.

中文翻译：

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全球多样性热点地区的鲸类保护规划：处理不确定性和数据不足

许多鲸类物种面临人为干扰的风险，包括气候变化、污染和栖息地退化。因此，需要确定鲸类动物的保护管理热点。Aotearoa-新西兰水域被世界上 53% 的鲸类物种使用，是全球鲸类多样性的热点。使用鲸类分类群的地理预测，我们旨在使用两种方法确定新西兰水域内的重要区域：鲸类丰富度的估计和空间优先级分析。对于这两种方法，我们研究了分类群发生层预测中不同程度的不确定性如何影响我们对鲸类热点的解释。尽管鲸类多样性重要区域的分布存在一些明显的空间差异，但这两种方法在所有不确定性情景中，突出了六个不同的深海区域作为重要栖息地。一般来说，近海地区的丰富度估计低于近海地区，但这些对于保护范围有限的物种（例如，地方性毛伊海豚和赫克托海豚）仍然很重要，并且在某些地方具有与近海热点相似的丰富度值。此外，近海热点在预测分类群分布和丰富度估计方面的不确定性较低。使用两种不同的不确定性估计允许以稳健和保守的方式整合来自不同来源（具有不同数量的鲸类记录的不同建模方法）的分布信息。