ABSTRACT

This paper explores the impact on the macroeconomy for certain OECD economies exposed to the COVID-19 pandemic shock. The analysis employs a panel of OECD countries, spanning the period March 2020 to January 2021. It also uses two proxies for the COVID-19 shocks: i) total confirmed incidences/cases and ii) total deaths while using the Bayesian Panel Vector Autoregressive (BPVAR) method. The findings document that the COVID-19 shock exerts a strong negative effect on industrial production. Considering how such epidemic shocks affect the expectations of economic participants, the paper questions their absence in accounting for forthcoming growth-related incidences.

摘要

本文探讨了受到 COVID-19 大流行冲击的某些经合组织经济体对宏观经济的影响。该分析采用了一组 OECD 国家，时间跨度为 2020 年 3 月至 2021 年 1 月。它还使用了 COVID-19 冲击的两个代理：i) 确认的总发病率/病例和 ii) 使用贝叶斯面板矢量自回归时的总死亡人数（ BPVAR) 方法。调查结果表明，COVID-19 冲击对工业生产产生了强烈的负面影响。考虑到这种流行病冲击如何影响经济参与者的预期，本文质疑他们在解释即将到来的与增长相关的事件时的缺席。