We characterize the distribution of long-term equity returns based on the historical record of stock market performance in a broad cross section of 39 developed countries over the period from 1841 to 2019. Our comprehensive sample mitigates concerns over survivor and easy data biases that plague other work in this area. A bootstrap simulation analysis implies substantial uncertainty about long-horizon stock market outcomes, and we estimate a 12% chance that a diversified investor with a 30-year investment horizon will lose relative to inflation. The results contradict the conventional advice that stocks are safe investments over long holding periods.

我们根据 1841 年至 2019 年期间 39 个发达国家的广泛横截面股票市场表现的历史记录，描述了长期股票回报的分布特征。我们的综合样本减轻了对幸存者和容易数据偏差的担忧，这些偏差困扰着其他国家在这个领域工作。Bootstrap 模拟分析意味着长期股市结果存在很大的不确定性，我们估计拥有 30 年投资期限的多元化投资者相对于通胀而言有 12% 的机会会亏损。结果与传统的建议相矛盾，即股票是长期持有的安全投资。