ABSTRACT

This paper assesses some of the factors that influence the public’s geopolitical preferences in the Association Agreement (AA) countries (Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine). Specifically, I test the winners and losers theory, according to which individuals with higher chances of success in a particular society (winners) tend to support EU membership more than those with lower chances (losers). In addition, I explore the influence of political engagement, future migration preferences, and political values on this support. Departing from the conception of geopolitical preferences in the AA countries as a dichotomy between supporters of the Eurasian Economic Union (Easternizers) and supporters of the European Union (Westernizers), I adopt a four-fold classification that also considers the individuals who support both (Balancers) and neither (Isolationists). Drawing on survey data from Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine (2015–2019), I find similar patterns of effects for the winners and losers variables across the three countries, with winners more likely to be Westernizers and losers more likely to be Easternizers or Isolationists. Moreover, politically engaged individuals tend to be Balancers and Westernizers, whereas disengaged individuals show support for the Isolationist option. Values are a significant predictor for Balancers and Westernizers, since preferring liberal values has a positive effect on being a Westernizer and negative on being a Balancer.

摘要

本文评估了影响结盟协定 (AA) 国家（格鲁吉亚、摩尔多瓦和乌克兰）中公众地缘政治偏好的一些因素。具体来说，我测试了赢家和输家理论，根据该理论，在特定社会中成功机会较高的人（赢家）比那些机会较低的人（输家）更倾向于支持加入欧盟。此外，我探讨了政治参与、未来的移民偏好和政治价值观对这种支持的影响。从 AA 国家的地缘政治偏好概念出发，将欧亚经济联盟的支持者 (Easternizers) 和欧盟的支持者 (Westernizers) 划分为二分法，我采用了四重分类，同时考虑了既支持（平衡者）又不支持（孤立主义者）的个人。根据格鲁吉亚、摩尔多瓦和乌克兰（2015-2019 年）的调查数据，我发现这三个国家的赢家和输家变量的影响模式相似，赢家更有可能是西化者，输家更有可能是东方主义者或孤立主义者. 此外，参与政治的人往往是平衡者和西化者，而不参与的人则表示支持孤立主义选项。价值观是平衡者和西化者的重要预测因素，因为偏好自由主义价值观对成为西化者有积极影响，而对平衡者有负面影响。我发现这三个国家的赢家和输家变量的影响模式相似，赢家更有可能是西化者，输家更有可能是东方主义者或孤立主义者。此外，参与政治的人往往是平衡者和西化者，而不参与的人则表示支持孤立主义选项。价值观是平衡者和西化者的重要预测因素，因为偏好自由主义价值观对成为西化者有积极影响，而对平衡者有负面影响。我发现这三个国家的赢家和输家变量的影响模式相似，赢家更有可能是西化者，输家更有可能是东方主义者或孤立主义者。此外，参与政治的人往往是平衡者和西化者，而不参与的人则表示支持孤立主义选项。价值观是平衡者和西化者的重要预测因素，因为偏好自由主义价值观对成为西化者有积极影响，而对平衡者有负面影响。