Abstract

Housing costs have been increasing rapidly in Germany in recent years. Given the importance of housing for the elderly, one may expect many to be forced to dedicate ever-larger shares of their income to housing costs. Using longitudinal data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP), we examine how changes in housing costs between 1996 and 2017 have affected income poverty among Germany’s over-65s. Our results reveal that higher costs have indeed contributed to increased income poverty in old age in that period. Our pooled probit regression models as applied to Germany’s elderly show that increased housing costs mean tenants, homeowners with outstanding mortgages, single-person households and people with migration background all suffer a higher risk of poverty, while the risk remains lower for outright homeowners. Since the relative income position of the elderly is expected to further deteriorate in future, our study suggests a need for policy action to avoid a worsening in figures for old-age income poverty in Germany.

摘要

近年来，德国的住房成本快速增长。鉴于住房对老年人的重要性，人们可能会预计许多人将被迫将越来越大的收入份额用于住房费用。我们利用德国社会经济小组 (GSOEP) 的纵向数据，研究了 1996 年至 2017 年间住房成本的变化如何影响德国 65 岁以上老年人的收入贫困。我们的研究结果表明，较高的成本确实导致了这一时期老年收入贫困的加剧。我们应用于德国老年人的汇总概率回归模型表明，住房成本的增加意味着租户、未偿还抵押贷款的房主、单身家庭和有移民背景的人都面临更高的贫困风险，而对于彻底的房主来说，贫困风险仍然较低。