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The effects of meteorological parameters on PM10: Health impacts assessment using AirQ+ model and prediction by an artificial neural network (ANN)
Urban Climate ( IF 6.4 ) Pub Date : 2021-07-05 , DOI: 10.1016/j.uclim.2021.100905
Saeid Fallahizadeh 1, 2 , Majid Kermani 1, 2 , Ali Esrafili 1, 2 , Zahra Asadgol 1, 2 , Mitra Gholami 1, 2
Affiliation  

The estimation of PM10 health effects and air quality forecasting plays an essential role in protecting public health against harmful air pollutants. This study aimed to estimate the impact of meteorological parameters on PM10, evaluate its health impacts, and its prediction using an artificial neural network (ANN) in Yasuj. Demographic, meteorological, and PM10 data were collected from March 2013 to March 2018 in one of Iran's cities. The health impacts of PM10 were estimated using the AirQ+ software. Furthermore, the daily average of PM10 concentrations combined with the meteorological data was used to predict PM10 concentration. The results showed a greater risk of respiratory symptoms for the incidence of asthma symptoms in asthmatic children, the prevalence of bronchitis in children, incidence of chronic bronchitis in adults, and postneonatal infant mortality due to exposure to PM10 with a relative risk of 1.028, 1.08, 1.117, and 1.04 respectively. Also, the best MLP-ANN model predicted PM10 value with correlation coefficient (R2) of 0.87. It can be concluded that decreased PM10 levels were associated with reduced symptoms of bronchitis and asthma in children and bronchitis in adults, and ANN modeling provides a feasible procedure for managerial planning in the view of air pollution.



中文翻译:

气象参数对 PM 10 的影响:使用 AirQ+ 模型和人工神经网络 (ANN) 预测的健康影响评估

PM 10健康影响的估计和空气质量预测在保护公众健康免受有害空气污染物的侵害方面起着至关重要的作用。本研究旨在估计气象参数对 PM 10 的影响,评估其健康影响,并使用 Yasuj 的人工神经网络 (ANN) 进行预测。2013 年 3 月至 2018 年 3 月在伊朗的一个城市收集了人口统计、气象和 PM 10数据。PM 10对健康的影响是使用 AirQ+ 软件估算的。此外,PM 10浓度的日平均值结合气象数据用于预测 PM 10专注。结果显示,哮喘儿童哮喘症状的发病率、儿童支气管炎的患病率、成人慢性支气管炎的发病率以及因暴露于 PM 10而导致的新生儿死亡的呼吸道症状风险更大,相对风险为 1.028,分别为 1.08、1.117 和 1.04。此外,最好的 MLP-ANN 模型预测 PM 10值,相关系数 (R 2 ) 为 0.87。可以得出结论,PM 10水平降低与儿童支气管炎和哮喘症状的减轻以及成人支气管炎症状的减轻有关,ANN 模型为空气污染的管理规划提供了可行的程序。

更新日期:2021-07-05
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