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To move or stay? A cellular automata model to predict urban growth in coastal regions amidst rising sea levels
International Journal of Digital Earth ( IF 5.1 ) Pub Date : 2021-07-05 , DOI: 10.1080/17538947.2021.1946178
Siqin Wang 1, 2 , Yan Liu 1, 2 , Yongjiu Feng 1, 2, 3 , Zhenkun Lei 4
Affiliation  

ABSTRACT

Low-lying coastal cities are widely acknowledged as the most densely populated places of urban settlement; they are also more vulnerable to risks resulting from intensive land use and land cover change, human activities, global climate change, and the rising sea levels. This study aims to predict how urban growth is affected by sea level rise (SLR) in the Australian context. We develop an urban cellular automata model incorporating urban planning policies as potential drivers or constraints of urban growth under different SLR scenarios and adaption strategies. Drawing on data capturing the socioeconomic and environmental factors in South East Queensland, Australia, our model is positioned to address one core research question: how does SLR affect future urban growth and human resettlement? Results show that urban growth in coastal regions varies depending on the extent to which the sea level rises and is affected by a combination of factors relating to urban planning and human adaptation strategies. Our study demonstrates the complexity of urban growth in coastal regions and the nuanced outcomes under different adaptation strategies in the context of rising sea levels.



中文翻译:

搬家还是留下来?在海平面上升的情况下预测沿海地区城市增长的元胞自动机模型

摘要

地势低洼的沿海城市被公认为是城市聚落人口最稠密的地方;他们也更容易受到土地密集使用和土地覆盖变化、人类活动、全球气候变化和海平面上升带来的风险的影响。本研究旨在预测澳大利亚背景下海平面上升 (SLR) 如何影响城市增长。我们开发了一个城市元胞自动机模型,将城市规划政策作为不同 SLR 情景和适应策略下城市增长的潜在驱动因素或约束条件。利用捕捉澳大利亚昆士兰东南部社会经济和环境因素的数据,我们的模型旨在解决一个核心研究问题:SLR 如何影响未来的城市发展和人类重新安置?结果表明,沿海地区的城市增长因海平面上升的程度而异,并受到与城市规划和人类适应策略相关的多种因素的影响。我们的研究证明了沿海地区城市增长的复杂性以及在海平面上升的背景下不同适应策略下的细微差别。

更新日期:2021-07-30
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