This study presents an integrated model based on cellular automata for assessing and simulating land use/cover changes and their impact on the environment. Satellite images from Landsat TM and ETM + sensors from the time period of 1985 to 2014 were applied. Seven static and five dynamic variables were applied. These included elevation, slope, aspect, soil salinity, soil texture, distance from rivers, and roads, and distance from the five classes of land use. The model was validated by a fuzzy reciprocal similarity method. The results showed that this model is suitable for simulating changes in periods of less than 15 years and patches with areas greater than 25 hectares. The model was run for 15 years, beginning with the year 2014. The results for the study area predict that settlement areas will expand; agricultural land, rangeland and barren areas will decline; and forests will remain unchanged until 2029.

中文翻译：

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用于监测和模拟城市土地利用/覆盖向可持续性变化的细胞自动机模型

本研究提出了一个基于元胞自动机的集成模型，用于评估和模拟土地利用/覆盖变化及其对环境的影响。应用了 1985 年至 2014 年期间来自 Landsat TM 和 ETM + 传感器的卫星图像。应用了七个静态变量和五个动态变量。这些包括高程、坡度、坡向、土壤盐度、土壤质地、与河流和道路的距离以及与五类土地利用的距离。该模型通过模糊互易相似性方法进行验证。结果表明，该模型适用于模拟15年以内和面积大于25公顷的斑块的变化。该模型从 2014 年开始运行了 15 年。研究区的结果预测定居区将扩大；农业用地，牧场和贫瘠地区将减少；森林将保持不变，直到 2029 年。