An unpleasant truth overlooked is that although war is a great evil, it does have a great virtue: it can solve political conflicts and lead to peace. This can happen when all belligerents become exhausted or when one wins decisively. This study empirically analyzes whether these arguments are supported by evidence on recent military interventions. In our analysis, the effect of military intervention on deterioration risk is not highly significant and considerable. At peak, danger—the risk of state collapse—is about 38%, whereas a country with no intervention has a risk of 19%. R2P doctrine, however, developed by the International Commission on Intervention and State Sovereignty in 2001 with the avowed objectives of protecting humans from mass atrocities and other crimes, is theoretically defective, which will continue to be limited. To avoid arbitrary intervention, we should restructure the philosophy of the R2P to one with which any society of any age can agree and pursue a “minimalist-institutional approach.”

一个被忽视的令人不快的事实是，战争虽然是大恶，但它确实有一个伟大的优点：它可以解决政治冲突，带来和平。当所有交战方都筋疲力尽或一方果断获胜时，就会发生这种情况。本研究实证分析了这些论点是否得到了最近军事干预的证据的支持。在我们的分析中，军事干预对恶化风险的影响不是非常显着和相当大。在高峰时期，危险——国家崩溃的风险——约为 38%，而一个没有干预的国家的风险为 19%。然而，国际干预和国家主权委员会于 2001 年制定的 R2P 原则，其公开的目标是保护人类免受大规模暴行和其他犯罪的侵害，在理论上存在缺陷，并将继续受到限制。