The existence of a link between exports and domestic demand challenges the standard theoretical assumption in international trade models and carries out important policy implications. In our empirical setup the estimated relationship between exports and domestic sales results directly from a monopolistic model of a firm selling to both domestic and external markets. We find a noteworthy negative relationship between domestic sales and firms’ exports covering the manufacturing sector over the period 2009 – 2016. This result holds for almost all industries although with a heterogeneous magnitude. Additionally, there is also evidence that this effect is stronger for larger firms.

出口和国内需求之间存在联系，这对国际贸易模型中的标准理论假设提出了挑战，并产生了重要的政策影响。在我们的实证设置中，出口和国内销售之间的估计关系直接来自企业向国内和国外市场销售的垄断模型。我们发现，在 2009 年至 2016 年期间，涵盖制造业的国内销售与企业出口之间存在显着的负相关关系。这一结果几乎适用于所有行业，尽管幅度不同。此外，还有证据表明，这种效应对大公司更强。