Purpose

This study aims to analyse the effect of gun-related violence on housing values, controlling for the area's crime levels and locational factors. Previous studies that aimed to find a causal connection between crime and housing values used instrument variables to solve the endogeneity problem. Here, the authors have instead been able to take advantage of the fact that shootings have occurred in random time and space. This has made it possible to estimate models to create windows around the shooting (event) and to estimate the causal effects of the shootings. Thus, the authors aim to contribute to the regression discontinuity design method in this context to estimate the short-term effects.

Design/methodology/approach

Using the regression discontinuity design method, the authors can estimate the short-term effects of shootings.

Findings

Findings from the analysis indicate that shootings directly affect those who are impacted by shootings and indirectly affect the environments where shootings occur. The indirect effect of shootings is momentary as it is capitalised directly in housing values in the immediate area. The effect also appears to be relatively long-term and persistent as housing values have not returned to the price level before the shooting 100–200 days after the shooting. The capitalisation effect is higher the closer one gets to the central parts of the city. On the other hand, the capitalisation effect is not higher or lower in areas with a higher crime rate per capita.

Originality/value

The article contributes to the previous literature in several ways. First and foremost, it provides an explicit analysis of shootings in built-up areas and their hypothesised effect on property prices through the impact on attractiveness and perceived safety. As far as the authors know, no study has analysed this issue on the international level or in Sweden. In this way, the authors aim to develop a study that can provide critical knowledge about one of the adverse effects of shootings. The authors also contribute to the literature by utilising unique data material, which allows the authors to merge information from the police about the exact location of shootings in the Stockholm area with data on sales of apartments in the same residential areas. In addition to the exact location of the shootings (coordinates), the authors also have access to data about whether the shootings led to injuries or deaths. Thus, the authors have separated the effect of shootings and fatal shootings, which has not been done before. Finally, the authors set out to highlight the results as a contribution to the debate on shootings.

中文翻译：

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与枪支有关的暴力行为对住宅区的吸引力有什么影响？瑞典斯德哥尔摩的案例

目的

本研究旨在分析枪支相关暴力对住房价值的影响，控制该地区的犯罪水平和位置因素。先前旨在寻找犯罪和住房价值之间因果关系的研究使用工具变量来解决内生性问题。在这里，作者反而能够利用枪击事件发生在随机时间和空间的事实。这使得估计模型以在枪击事件（事件）周围创建窗口并估计枪击事件的因果影响成为可能。因此，作者的目标是在这种情况下为回归不连续设计方法做出贡献，以估计短期影响。

设计/方法/方法

使用回归不连续设计方法，作者可以估计枪击事件的短期影响。

发现

分析结果表明，枪击事件直接影响受枪击事件影响的人，间接影响枪击事件发生的环境。枪击事件的间接影响是暂时的，因为它直接反映在附近地区的住房价值中。这种影响似乎也相对长期和持久，因为在枪击事件发生 100-200 天后，房价还没有回到枪击事件发生前的价格水平。离市中心越近，资本化效应越高。另一方面，在人均犯罪率较高的地区，资本化效应并不高或低。

原创性/价值

这篇文章在几个方面对以前的文献做出了贡献。首先，它通过对吸引力和感知安全的影响，对建成区的枪击事件及其对房地产价格的假设影响进行了明确的分析。据作者所知，没有研究在国际层面或瑞典分析过这个问题。通过这种方式，作者的目标是开展一项研究，以提供有关枪击事件的不利影响的关键知识。作者还通过利用独特的数据材料为文献做出贡献，这使作者能够将警方提供的有关斯德哥尔摩地区枪击事件确切位置的信息与同一住宅区公寓销售的数据相结合。除了枪击事件的确切位置（坐标），作者还可以获得有关枪击是否导致受伤或死亡的数据。因此，作者将枪击的影响和致命的枪击分开，这是以前没有做过的。最后，作者着手强调结果，作为对枪击事件辩论的贡献。