People mentally simulate future events, visualise themselves in these events, and then make predictions about how they would feel. This process is referred to as affective forecasting. Tourism lends itself toward affective forecasting because holiday experiences are not tangible and difficult to judge upfront. The authors conceptualise and empirically examine the mental simulation and affective forecasting in tourist decision-making. Using the COVID-19 pandemic as a proof of concept, they employ an experimental research design to demonstrate that affective forecasting can mitigate risk perceptions and travel decision-making in times of a pandemic. The findings highlight how affective forecasting can be leveraged to predict and change travel behaviour in the aftermath of pandemics, though implications reach beyond this context.

中文翻译：

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情感预测和旅行决策：大流行时期的调查

人们在心理上模拟未来的事件，在这些事件中想象自己，然后预测他们的感受。这个过程被称为情感预测。旅游有助于进行情感预测，因为假期体验不是有形的，也很难预先判断。作者对旅游决策中的心理模拟和情感预测进行了概念化和实证检验。使用 COVID-19 大流行作为概念证明，他们采用了一项实验研究设计来证明情感预测可以在大流行时期减轻风险认知和旅行决策。研究结果强调了如何利用情感预测来预测和改变大流行之后的旅行行为，尽管其影响超出了这一背景。