Across the globe, temperatures are predicted to increase with consequences for many taxonomic groups. Arthropods are particularly at risk as temperature imposes physiological constraints on growth, survival, and reproduction. Given that arthropods may be disproportionately affected in a warmer climate—the question becomes which taxa are vulnerable and can we predict the supposed winners and losers of climate change? To address this question, we resurveyed 33 ant communities, quantifying 20-yr differences in the incidence of 28 genera. Each North American ant community was surveyed with 30 1-m² plots, and the incidence of each genus across the 30 plots was used to estimate change. From the original surveys in 1994–1997 to the resurveys in 2016–2017, temperature increased on average 1°C (range, −0.4°C to 2.5°C) and ~64% of ant genera increased in more than half of the sampled communities. To test Thermal Performance Theory's prediction that genera with higher average thermal limits will tend to accumulate at the expense of those with lower limits, we quantified critical thermal maxima (CT_max: the high temperatures at which they lose muscle control) and minima (CT_min: the low temperatures at which ants first become inactive) for common genera at each site. Consistent with prediction, we found a positive decelerating relationship between CT_max and the proportion of sites in which a genus had increased. CT_min, by contrast, was not a useful predictor of change. There was a strong positive correlation (r = 0.85) between the proportion of sites where a genus was found with higher incidence after 20 yr and the average difference in number of plots occupied per site, suggesting genera with high CT_max values tended to occupy more plots at more sites after 20 yr. Thermal functional traits like CT_max have thus proved useful in predicting patterns of long-term community change in a dominant, diverse insect taxon.

中文翻译：

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热特性预测气候变化下的赢家和输家：来自北美蚂蚁社区的例子

在全球范围内，预计气温会升高，并对许多分类群产生影响。节肢动物尤其处于危险之中，因为温度对生长、生存和繁殖施加了生理限制。鉴于节肢动物可能在温暖的气候中受到不成比例的影响——问题变成了哪些分类群是脆弱的，我们能否预测气候变化的赢家和输家？为了解决这个问题，我们重新调查了 33 个蚂蚁群落，量化了 28 个属的 20 年发病率差异。每个北美蚂蚁群落都接受了 30 1-m ^{2 的}调查地块，并且使用 30 个地块中每个属的发生率来估计变化。从 1994-1997 年的原始调查到 2016-2017 年的再调查，温度平均升高了 1°C（范围，-0.4°C 到 2.5°C），超过一半的样本增加了约 64% 的蚂蚁属社区。为了测试热性能理论的预测，即具有较高平均热极限的属将倾向于以较低极限为代价进行积累，我们量化了临界热最大值（CT_最大值：它们失去肌肉控制的高温）和最小值（CT _min : 蚂蚁最初变得不活跃的低温）对于每个地点的常见属。与预测一致，我们发现 CT _max之间存在正减速关系以及一个属增加的地点的比例。相比之下，CT _min不是变化的有用预测指标。 20年后发现某一属的发生率较高的位点比例与每个位点所占地块数的平均差异之间存在很强的正相关（r = 0.85），表明具有高CT_最大值的属往往占据更多20 年后在更多地点的地块。因此，诸如 CT _{max 之}类的热功能特征已被证明可用于预测占主导地位的多样化昆虫分类群的长期群落变化模式。