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Brazil's quasi-stagnation and East-Asia growth: A new-developmental explanation
Structural Change and Economic Dynamics ( IF 5.059 ) Pub Date : 2021-07-02 , DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2021.06.014
Luiz Carlos Bresser-Pereira 1
Affiliation  

From the 1980s, Brazil quasi-stagnated while East-Asia continued to grow. What went wrong? Classical developmentalists and post-Keynesians argue the cause was the desertion of the national developmental project based on structural change or industrialization. New-developmental economics agrees but is more specific: two historical new facts reduced investments. In the 1980s, a fiscal crisis of the state defined by negative public savings, broke up. This crisis, which was not resolved, led to the fall of public investments. As to private investments, they also have fallen as a percentage of GDP (when we compare with the 1970). They have fallen due to an action and an omission. The action was the mistaken adoption of growth with foreign indebtedness policy and the consequent excess of capital inflows. The omission was the suspension of the neutralization of the Dutch disease. Both resulted in a long-term overvaluation of the exchange rate and stopped industrialization.



中文翻译:

巴西的准停滞和东亚增长:一种新的发展解释

从 1980 年代开始,巴西几乎停滞不前,而东亚则继续增长。什么地方出了错?古典发展主义者和后凯恩斯主义者认为,原因是基于结构变化或工业化的国家发展项目的遗弃。新发展经济学同意但更具体:两个历史新事实减少了投资。在 1980 年代,由负公共储蓄定义的国家财政危机爆发了。这场未解决的危机导致公共投资下降。至于私人投资,它们占 GDP 的百分比也有所下降(与 1970 年相比)。他们因行动和疏忽而堕落。其行动是错误地采用了外债政策和随之而来的过度资本流入。遗漏是暂停荷兰病的中和。两者都导致汇率长期高估并停止工业化。

更新日期:2021-08-05
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