Global projections indicate that approximately 500 Mha of new arable land will be required to meet crop demand by 2050. Applying a dynamic phosphorus (P) pool simulator under different socioeconomic scenarios, we find that cropland expansion can be avoided with less than 7% additional cumulative P fertilizer over 2006–2050 when comparing with cropland expansion scenarios, mostly targeted at nutrient-depleted soils of sub-Saharan Africa. Additional P fertilizer would replenish P withdrawn from crop production, thereby allowing higher productivity levels. We also show that further agronomic improvements such as those that allow for better (legacy) P use in soils could reduce both P outflows to freshwater and coastal ecosystems and the overall demand for P fertilizer.

全球预测表明，到 2050 年，将需要大约 500 Mha 的新耕地才能满足作物需求。在不同的社会经济情景下应用动态磷 (P) 库模拟器，我们发现可以避免耕地扩张，而额外的累计增加不到 7%与农田扩张情景相比，2006-2050 年的磷肥主要针对撒哈拉以南非洲营养耗尽的土壤。额外的磷肥可以补充从作物生产中提取的磷，从而提高生产力水平。我们还表明，进一步的农艺改良，例如允许在土壤中更好地（遗留）P 使用的改良，可以减少流向淡水和沿海生态系统的 P 外流以及对 P 肥料的总体需求。