Objective

To assess the association of baseline uric acid levels and their changes from baseline to Year 1 with the risk of type 2 diabetes.

Research design and methods

This study cohort included 9471 subjects without a history of diabetes at baseline. The incident diabetes was diagnosed according to the American Diabetes Association standard.

Results

During a mean follow-up of 2.9 years, we identified 762 type 2 diabetes cases. Multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of diabetes across baseline tertiles of serum uric acid were 1.00, 1.15, and 1.32 (P for trend = 0.018), respectively. Participants with hyperuricemia compared with those without had a 1.20-fold (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01−1.44) risk of diabetes. When uric acid was examined as a continuous variable, multivariable-adjusted HR of diabetes for each 1 mg/dL (60 μmol/L) increase in serum uric acid was 1.09 (95% CI 1.03−1.15). Compared with subjects with stable serum uric acid from baseline to Year 1 (±10%), those with uric acid gain ≥30% had a 30% (95% CI 1.01–1.79) increased risk of diabetes and those with uric acid loss ≥10% had a 21% (95% 0.62−0.99) decreased risk of diabetes. This positive association between baseline serum uric acid and diabetes risk was consistent among subjects younger and older than 45 years, non-obese and obese participants, and men.

Conclusions

High level of baseline serum uric acid and serum uric acid gain from baseline to Year 1 are associated with an increased risk of type 2 diabetes among Chinese adults.