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A Human-Bovine Schistosomiasis Mathematical Model with Treatment and Mollusciciding
Acta Biotheoretica ( IF 1.3 ) Pub Date : 2021-06-30 , DOI: 10.1007/s10441-021-09416-0
Solomon Kadaleka 1, 2 , Shirley Abelman 2 , Jean M Tchuenche 2
Affiliation  

To mitigate the spread of schistosomiasis, a deterministic human-bovine mathematical model of its transmission dynamics accounting for contaminated water reservoirs, including treatment of bovines and humans and mollusciciding is formulated and theoretically analyzed. The disease-free equilibrium is locally and globally asymptotically stable whenever the basic reproduction number \(R_0<1\), while global stability of the endemic equilibrium is investigated by constructing a suitable Lyapunov function. To support the analytical results, parameter values from published literature are used for numerical simulations and where applicable, uncertainty analysis on the non-dimensional system parameters is performed using the Latin Hypercube Sampling and Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient techniques. Sensitivity analysis to determine the relative importance of model parameters to disease transmission shows that the environment-related parameters namely, \(\varepsilon _s\) (snails shedding rate of cercariae), \(p_s\) (probability that cercariae shed by snails survive), c (fraction of the contaminated environment sprayed by molluscicides) and \(\mu _c\) (mortality rate of cercariae) are the most significant to mitigate the spread of schistosomiasis. Mollusciciding, which directly impacts the contaminated environment as a single control strategy is more effective compared to treatment. However, concurrently applying mollusciciding and treatment will yield a better outcome.



中文翻译:

一种治疗和杀软体动物的人-牛血吸虫病数学模型

为了减轻血吸虫病的传播,制定并理论分析了其传播动力学的确定性人牛数学模型,该模型考虑了受污染的水库,包括牛和人类的治疗以及杀软体动物。当基本再生数\(R_0<1\),而通过构建合适的李雅普诺夫函数来研究地方性均衡的全局稳定性。为了支持分析结果,已发表文献中的参数值用于数值模拟,并且在适用的情况下,使用拉丁超立方采样和偏秩相关系数技术对无量纲系统参数进行不确定性分析。确定模型参数对疾病传播的相对重要性的敏感性分析表明,与环境相关的参数即\(\varepsilon _s\)(尾蚴的蜗牛脱落率)、\(p_s\)(由蜗牛脱落的尾蚴存活的概率 )、c(被杀软体动物剂喷洒的污染环境的一部分)和\(\mu _c\)(尾蚴死亡率)是减缓血吸虫病传播最重要的指标。与治疗相比,作为单一控制策略直接影响受污染环境的杀软体动物更有效。然而,同时应用杀软体动物和治疗会产生更好的结果。

更新日期:2021-06-30
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