Purpose

This study presents the applicability of a model-based approach for loyalty program forecasting using smartphone app in the digital strategy of the retail industry.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors develop a dynamic model with the cyclical structure of customer segments through customer experience. They use time-series data on the number of members of the loyalty program, “Seven Mile Program” and confirm the validity of the approximate calculation of customer segment share, customer segment sales share and aggregate sales performance. The authors present three medium-term forecast scenarios after the launch of a smartphone payment service linked with the loyalty program.

Findings

The sum of the two customer segment shares for forecasting (the sum of the quasi-excellent and excellent customer ratios) is about 30% in each scenario, consistent with an essential customer loyalty (true loyalty) share obtained in the existing empirical study.

Research limitations/implications

Digital strategy in the retail industry should focus more on estimating and forecasting average amounts of customer segments and the number of aggregated customers through the digitalization on the customer side than on individual customer journeys and responses.

Practical implications

Multi-scenario evaluation through simulation of dynamic models from a systemic view can be used for decision-making in retailing digital strategies.

Originality/value

This study builds a model that integrates the cyclicality of customer segment transition through customer experiences into a loyalty matrix framework, which is a method that has previously been used in the hospitality industry.

中文翻译：

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通过客户忠诚度计划进行客户细分

目的

本研究介绍了基于模型的方法在零售行业的数字战略中使用智能手机应用程序进行忠诚度计划预测的适用性。

设计/方法/方法

作者通过客户体验开发了具有客户细分循环结构的动态模型。他们使用忠诚计划“七英里计划”成员数量的时间序列数据，并确认客户细分市场份额、客户细分市场销售份额和总销售业绩的近似计算的有效性。作者提出了与忠诚度计划相关的智能手机支付服务推出后的三种中期预测情景。

发现

在每种情况下，用于预测的两个客户群份额之和（准优秀和优秀客户比率之和）约为 30%，与现有实证研究中获得的基本客户忠诚度（真实忠诚度）份额一致。

研究限制/影响

零售行业的数字化战略应更多地关注通过客户方面的数字化来估计和预测平均客户群数量和聚合客户数量，而不是单个客户旅程和响应。

实际影响

通过从系统角度模拟动态模型的多场景评估可用于零售数字战略的决策。

原创性/价值

本研究建立了一个模型，将通过客户体验的客户群转换的周期性整合到忠诚度矩阵框架中，这是以前在酒店业中使用的一种方法。