Mathematical Biosciences ( IF 4.3 ) Pub Date : 2021-06-30 , DOI: 10.1016/j.mbs.2021.108654 Isabelle J Rao 1 , Margaret L Brandeau 1
We examine the problem of allocating a limited supply of vaccine for controlling an infectious disease with the goal of minimizing the effective reproduction number . We consider an SIR model with two interacting populations and develop an analytical expression that the optimal vaccine allocation must satisfy. With limited vaccine supplies, we find that an all-or-nothing approach is optimal. For certain special cases, we determine the conditions under which the optimal is below 1. We present an example of vaccine allocation for COVID-19 and show that it is optimal to vaccinate younger individuals before older individuals to minimize if less than 59% of the population can be vaccinated. The analytical conditions we develop provide a simple means of determining the optimal allocation of vaccine between two population groups to minimize .
中文翻译:
有限疫苗的优化配置使有效繁殖数最小化
我们研究了分配有限供应的疫苗来控制传染病的问题,目标是最小化有效繁殖数. 我们考虑具有两个相互作用群体的 SIR 模型,并开发最佳疫苗分配必须满足的分析表达式。由于疫苗供应有限,我们发现采用全有或全无的方法是最佳的。对于某些特殊情况,我们确定最佳的条件低于 1。我们提供了一个针对 COVID-19 的疫苗分配示例,并表明最好先给年轻人接种疫苗,然后再给老年人接种疫苗,以最大限度地减少如果只有不到 59% 的人口可以接种疫苗。我们开发的分析条件提供了一种简单的方法来确定两个人群之间疫苗的最佳分配,以尽量减少.