Connected and autonomous vehicles (CAVs) are within reach of widespread deployment on public roads, but public perceptions are ambivalent. The objective of the present research was to assess expectations about the consequences of CAV introduction. These expectations should explain CAV acceptance, but their relative importance is poorly understood. We conducted a survey with a representatively drawn panel sample (N = 529) from France, Germany, Italy, and the UK. The survey consisted of a large item pool of expected consequences from CAV introduction, as well as general and affective evaluation of CAVs, ease of use, and behavioral intention to use CAVs. Exploratory factor analysis revealed four facets of expected consequences: road safety, privacy, efficiency and ecological sustainability. On average, expectations were mostly positive for ecological sustainability and safety, but negative for privacy. At the same time, substantial variance existed between respondents and between countries. For safety and efficiency, improvement was expected by a third of respondents, while another third expected worsening. Respondents from Italy expected more positive consequences for safety, while respondents from both France and Germany expected more negative consequences for privacy. To different degrees, all four facets predicted the intention to use CAVs in a structural equation model, primarily via affective evaluations. For policy makers, manufacturers, and service providers, understanding the trade-offs inherent to different CAV solutions will be central to ensure citizens’ needs are respected.

联网和自动驾驶汽车 (CAV) 可以在公共道路上广泛部署，但公众的看法是矛盾的。本研究的目的是评估对 CAV 引入后果的预期。这些期望应该可以解释 CAV 的接受程度，但人们对它们的相对重要性知之甚少。我们使用具有代表性的面板样本（N = 529) 来自法国、德国、意大利和英国。该调查包括大量引入 CAV 的预期结果，以及对 CAV、易用性和使用 CAV 的行为意图的一般和情感评估。探索性因素分析揭示了预期后果的四个方面：道路安全、隐私、效率和生态可持续性。平均而言，对生态可持续性和安全性的期望大多是积极的，但对隐私的期望是负面的。同时，受访者之间和国家之间存在很大差异。在安全和效率方面，三分之一的受访者预计会有所改善，而另外三分之一的受访者预计会恶化。来自意大利的受访者预计会对安全产生更积极的影响，而来自法国和德国的受访者预计隐私会产生更多负面影响。在不同程度上，所有四个方面都预测了在结构方程模型中使用 CAV 的意图，主要是通过情感评估。对于政策制定者、制造商和服务提供商而言，了解不同 CAV 解决方案固有的权衡对于确保尊重公民的需求至关重要。