Abstract

The pandemic crisis, responsible for increased levels of financing with public debt and contingent liabilities, may trigger another debt crisis across the European Union. Our research indicates that member states are increasingly willing to use public guarantees and other off-budget instruments, which are classified as "hidden debt" or "hidden expenditure". Simulations have shown that if public guarantees have to be covered by the budget, an unprecedented increase in a public debt may occur across the euro area countries and the entire EU as a whole. Therefore, the authors recommend the introduction of uniform rules for estimating fiscal risk due to contingent liabilities, as well as standards for their reporting, allowing for their constant monitoring at the EU level.

摘要

大流行危机导致公共债务和或有负债的融资水平增加，可能会引发整个欧盟的另一场债务危机。我们的研究表明，成员国越来越愿意使用公共担保和其他预算外工具，这些工具被归类为“隐性债务”或“隐性支出”。模拟表明，如果公共担保必须包含在预算中，那么整个欧元区国家和整个欧盟可能会出现前所未有的公共债务增加。因此，作者建议引入统一规则来估计或有负债引起的财政风险，以及报告标准，以便在欧盟层面进行持续监控。