The copper price is a leading indicator of real estate activity. Price increases are statistically related to increasing numbers of applications for residential building permits. However, this reciprocity is not instantaneous as permit numbers lag price rises by 9 to 10 months. This dynamic is implicit in various transmission channels: from the first effects on investment plans and demand for durable goods due to better expectations from investors and consumers to the real impact of higher copper revenues on the economy’s aggregate production and demand (multiplier or second-round effect). In this paper, we proposed the impulse-response functions of a vector autoregressive model to capture the dynamic between the copper price and house building permits. Therefore, it would be expected that the recent copper price increase will boost construction and real estate activity. The effects could materialize this year and extend into early 2022.

中文翻译：

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智利住房建设对铜价冲击的反应（2009-2020）

铜价是房地产活动的领先指标。价格上涨在统计上与住宅建筑许可证申请数量的增加有关。然而，这种互惠不是即时的，因为许可证数量滞后于价格上涨 9 到 10 个月。这种动态隐含在各种传输渠道中：从投资者和消费者更好的预期对投资计划和耐用品需求的第一次影响到更高的铜收入对经济总生产和需求的实际影响（乘数或第二轮影响）。在本文中，我们提出了矢量自回归模型的脉冲响应函数来捕捉铜价和房屋建筑许可之间的动态。所以，预计近期铜价上涨将推动建筑和房地产活动。这些影响可能会在今年实现并延续到 2022 年初。