This paper provides an ex-post assessment of net carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail (HSR) by including both mode substitution and traffic generation effects with a life-cycle approach. We are among the first authors to examine the emissions effects of a long-haul HSR and to consider the effects of avoided infrastructure expansion and vehicle manufacturing due to traffic diversion. We find that avoided infrastructure expansion plays a limited role in offsetting CO2 emissions from the construction of an HSR infrastructure, but the reduced demand for passenger vehicles can offset a larger share of emissions from the manufacturing of HSR rolling stock. Initially, too much traffic was diverted from ordinary-speed rail (OSR) to HSR, increasing emissions at the operation stage. As traffic diverted from road and air increased, the net emissions at the operation stage turned negative, offsetting emissions from infrastructure construction and vehicle manufacturing.

本文通过使用生命周期方法包括模式替代和交通产生效应，对京沪高铁 (HSR) 的净二氧化碳 (CO2) 排放进行了事后评估。我们是最早研究 长途高铁的排放影响并考虑 避免因交通 分流而导致的基础设施扩建和车辆制造影响的作者之一。我们发现，避免的基础设施扩建在抵消 高铁基础设施建设产生的二氧化碳排放方面的作用有限，但 客车需求的减少可以抵消高铁 机车车辆制造产生的更大份额的排放。最初，过多的交通从普通高铁分流 (OSR) 到高铁，增加运营阶段的排放。随着道路和航空分流的增加，运营阶段的净排放量转为负数，抵消了基础设施建设和汽车制造的排放量。