This paper investigates the dynamic impact of weather shocks on agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) of Australian broadacre industry, by applying a Panel Error Correction model (PECM) to the data of 32 agricultural regions over the period 1978–2013. In response to weather shocks, farmers take adaptive actions by adjusting their output and input structures to alleviate weather-induced loss in productivity. Moreover, farmers in regions with the least favorable climate condition are found to adapt to weather shocks more rapidly than those in regions with more favorable climate condition. Our finding highlights the importance of public policies to encourage farmers to improve adaptive capacities in the events of weather shock.

本文通过将面板误差校正模型 (PECM) 应用于 1978-2013 年期间 32 个农业区的数据，研究了天气冲击对澳大利亚大面积种植业农业全要素生产率 (TFP) 的动态影响。为应对天气冲击，农民通过调整产出和投入结构采取适应性行动，以减轻天气引起的生产力损失。此外，发现气候条件最差地区的农民比气候条件更有利地区的农民更快地适应天气冲击。我们的发现强调了公共政策在鼓励农民提高天气冲击事件中的适应能力方面的重要性。