Abstract Technical analysts believe that by studying past price action, it is possible to forecast future prices of specific securities. Technical analysts rely on the use of charts, which graphically show the past fluctuations of prices. This study focuses on the chart style known as Japanese candlesticks, which relies on four pieces of information for every session: Open, High, Low and Close prices. It is believed that some candle patterns possess predictive capabilities that can alert investors of imminent price tops, bottoms, or price trend continuations. For this study, we performed a statistical analysis, using historical prices of the S&P 500 index, of the effectiveness of Bullish Engulfing and Bearish Engulfing patterns, which are believed to forecast bottoms and tops respectively. Results indicate that the Bearish Engulfing provide strong short-term forecasting power when using the Open and High criteria but not the Close criterion. Likewise, the Bullish Engulfing offered strong short-term forecasting power when using the Open and Low criteria but not the Close criterion.

中文翻译：

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看涨和看跌吞没日本烛台形态：标准普尔 500 指数的统计分析

摘要 技术分析师认为，通过研究过去的价格走势，可以预测特定证券的未来价格。技术分析师依赖图表的使用，图表以图形方式显示过去的价格波动。本研究侧重于称为日本烛台的图表样式，它依赖于每个时段的四项信息：开盘价、最高价、最低价和收盘价。人们相信，某些蜡烛形态具有预测能力，可以提醒投资者即将到来的价格顶部、底部或价格趋势的延续。在本研究中，我们使用标准普尔 500 指数的历史价格对看涨吞没和看跌吞没模式的有效性进行了统计分析，这两种模式被认为分别预测底部和顶部。结果表明，当使用开盘价和高价标准而不是收盘价标准时，看跌吞没提供了强大的短期预测能力。同样，在使用开盘价和低价标准而不是收盘价标准时，看涨吞没提供了强大的短期预测能力。