Abstract

This paper assesses the distribution of climate change impacts on agricultural Total Factor Productivity (TFP) across districts in India. Combining the district-level TFP, estimated using multiple rounds of nationally representative agricultural surveys, with climate and other controls, the relationship between production efficiency and climate is estimated for two time points: 2002–2003 and 2012–2013. The estimated climate response function suggests that for every 1 °C rise in temperature, agricultural productivity reduces by ∼4.5%. Using estimated climate sensitivity and regionally downscaled climate projections, the study further assesses the impacts on agricultural TFP across districts over the mid-century. By 2050, TFP in agriculture is projected to decline for all the states considered in the study. The latter-period (2012–2013) climate response function projects more adverse impacts compared to the early-period (2002–2003) response function. The results also show increase in the magnitude of impacts over time, indicating that Indian agriculture has become more climate sensitive.

摘要

本文评估了气候变化对印度各地区农业全要素生产率 (TFP) 的影响分布。将使用多轮具有全国代表性的农业调查估算的区级 TFP 与气候和其他控制措施相结合，估算了两个时间点的生产效率与气候之间的关系：2002-2003 年和 2012-2013 年。估计的气候响应函数表明，温度每升高 1°C，农业生产力就会降低约 4.5%。该研究使用估计的气候敏感性和区域缩小的气候预测，进一步评估了本世纪中叶各地区对农业全要素生产率的影响。到 2050 年，研究中考虑的所有州的农业全要素生产率预计都将下降。与早期（2002-2003）响应函数相比，后期（2012-2013）气候响应函数预测了更多的不利影响。结果还显示，影响程度随着时间的推移而增加，表明印度农业对气候变得更加敏感。