Purpose

Much of the author’s understanding of experimental asset market bubbles is based on the Smith, Suchanek and Williams (SSW) design. The purpose of this paper is to find alternative bubble-producing designs, which is a promising path for new insights.

Design/methodology/approach

The Smith et al. (1988) experimental design has been widely used to study bubbles. This paper introduces a novel modification, where the asset has a binary liquidation value and no dividends. Dividends are replaced by the events affecting the liquidation value probability distribution.

Findings

Overpricing is common and consistent with subject optimism concerning the random liquidation value. Bubbles are also observed, as the degree of overpricing often rises and then fall during the experiments. However, crashes where the asset price drops below fundamental values are not observed.

Research limitations/implications

Subject over optimism, speculation and/or subject confusion are possible bubble ingredients. More research is needed to determine how much the factors responsible for these bubbles differ from the factors responsible for the SSW design. However, it seems likely that there are at least some common factors given the structural similarities between the two designs.

Originality/value

The present design is novel and may provide a means to better generalize results from previous experiments based on the SSW design.

中文翻译：

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连续信息发布实验中的资产市场泡沫

目的

作者对实验性资产市场泡沫的大部分理解是基于 Smith、Suchanek 和 Williams (SSW) 的设计。本文的目的是寻找替代的气泡产生设计，这是获得新见解的有前途的途径。

设计/方法/途径

史密斯等人。(1988) 实验设计已被广泛用于研究气泡。本文介绍了一种新颖的修改，其中资产具有二元清算价值且没有股息。股息被影响清算价值概率分布的事件所取代。

发现

定价过高很常见，并且与市场对随机清算价值的乐观态度一致。还观察到泡沫，因为定价过高的程度在实验过程中经常先升后降。然而，没有观察到资产价格跌破基本价值的崩盘。

研究局限性/影响

主题过度乐观、投机和/或主题混淆是可能的泡沫成分。需要更多的研究来确定造成这些气泡的因素与造成 SSW 设计的因素有多大不同。然而，鉴于两种设计之间的结构相似性，似乎至少存在一些共同因素。

原创性/价值

目前的设计是新颖的，可以提供一种方法来更好地概括以前基于 SSW 设计的实验结果。