In this study, it was analyzed whether the export dynamics affected net exports in fourteen emerging countries and eight developed countries between the years of 1995–2019. Export sophistication, export product diversification, export market diversification, export product concentration, export market concentration, and real effective exchange rate were used as the proxy of export dynamics. Panel data methods that take into account cross-section dependency and structural breaks were used for the analysis. As a result of the study, in developed countries, it was concluded that export sophistication, export product concentration, and export market diversification positively affected the net export, and the real effective exchange rate negatively affected the net export. For the emerging countries, it was concluded that export market concentration and real exchange rate negatively affected the net exports. Also, in emerging countries, it was found that export sophistication and export product diversification do not have any impact on net exports since export sophistication and export product diversification are not an adequately high level compared to developed countries for increasing the net export. The fact that in these countries the proportion of high-tech product exports are low in total exports and the product range in exports are not wide cause these indexes to be low. This situation poses a significant risk in terms of falling into the middle-income trap.

本研究分析了 1995-2019 年间出口动态是否影响了 14 个新兴国家和 8 个发达国家的净出口。出口复杂度、出口产品多元化、出口市场多元化、出口产品集中度、出口市场集中度和实际有效汇率被用作出口动态的代理。考虑到横截面依赖性和结构断裂的面板数据方法用于分析。研究结果表明，在发达国家，出口复杂程度、出口产品集中度和出口市场多元化对净出口产生积极影响，而实际有效汇率对净出口产生负面影响。对于新兴国家，结论是出口市场集中度和实际汇率对净出口产生负面影响。此外，在新兴国家，发现出口复杂度和出口产品多样化对净出口没有任何影响，因为与发达国家相比，出口复杂度和出口产品多样化水平不足以增加净出口。这些国家高新技术产品出口在出口总额中的比重较低，出口产品范围也不广，导致这些指标偏低。这种情况对落入中等收入陷阱构成了重大风险。结果表明，出口复杂度和出口产品多样化对净出口没有任何影响，因为与发达国家相比，出口复杂度和出口产品多样化在增加净出口方面还不够高。这些国家高新技术产品出口在出口总额中的比重较低，出口产品范围也不广，导致这些指标偏低。这种情况对落入中等收入陷阱构成了重大风险。结果表明，出口复杂度和出口产品多样化对净出口没有任何影响，因为与发达国家相比，出口复杂度和出口产品多样化在增加净出口方面还不够高。这些国家高新技术产品出口在出口总额中的比重较低，出口产品范围也不广，导致这些指标偏低。这种情况对落入中等收入陷阱构成了重大风险。这些国家高新技术产品出口在出口总额中的比重较低，出口产品范围也不广，导致这些指标偏低。这种情况对落入中等收入陷阱构成了重大风险。这些国家高新技术产品出口在出口总额中的比重较低，出口产品范围也不广，导致这些指标偏低。这种情况对落入中等收入陷阱构成了重大风险。