A perceived driver shortage causing difficulty in hiring and retaining qualified drivers threatens carrier productivity and profitability. Logistics literature concerning driver turnover has focused on three primary groups of factors contributing to the driver turnover: driver demographics, manager quality, and work environment. A key consideration, however, is that drivers have an outside option to work in other industry-occupations. We leverage the Roy model of occupational choice to develop hypotheses regarding the effects of wages and tenure on workers’ occupational choice. To test our theory, we conduct a series of econometric studies on a panel data set we assemble from publicly available data sets. Our results show that relative wages strongly influence the choice of whether to drive a truck for a living. A particularly important finding is that the effect of relative wages varies significantly across industry-occupations. In fact, contravening industry wisdom that wages are insufficient to attract qualified workers, wage elasticities are greater in trucking than in competing industry-occupations, such as construction or retail. These results persist after accounting for a wage–tenure interaction. This indicates that the persistent “driver shortage” faced by the industry is the result of wages failing to keep pace with wage increases in competing industry-occupations.

中文翻译：

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调查竞争性工资机会在卡车司机职业选择中的作用

司机短缺导致难以雇用和留住合格司机，这威胁到运营商的生产力和盈利能力。有关司机离职的物流文献主要关注导致司机离职的三组主要因素：司机人口统计、经理素质和工作环境。然而，一个关键的考虑因素是司机可以选择在其他行业工作。我们利用职业选择的 Roy 模型来提出关于工资和任期对工人职业选择的影响的假设。为了检验我们的理论，我们对从公开数据集中收集的面板数据集进行了一系列计量经济学研究。我们的研究结果表明，相对工资强烈影响是否以驾驶卡车为生的选择。一个特别重要的发现是，相对工资的影响在不同行业职业之间存在显着差异。事实上，与工资不足以吸引合格工人的行业智慧相反，卡车运输的工资弹性大于建筑或零售等竞争行业职业。在考虑了工资-任期相互作用后，这些结果仍然存在。这表明，该行业持续面临的“司机短缺”是由于工资未能跟上竞争行业职业的工资增长速度。例如建筑或零售。在考虑了工资-任期相互作用后，这些结果仍然存在。这表明，该行业持续面临的“司机短缺”是由于工资未能跟上竞争行业职业的工资增长速度。例如建筑或零售。在考虑了工资-任期相互作用后，这些结果仍然存在。这表明，该行业持续面临的“司机短缺”是由于工资未能跟上竞争行业职业的工资增长速度。