This paper presents an intuitive way to represent Keynes’s theory of expectations and its implications for financial markets. Further to a suggestion by Ellsberg, a coherent expectational function for the valuation of assets under Keynesian uncertainty is derived. By following the thread that goes from the non-numerical probabilities of the Treatise on Probability to the expectations of the General Theory, this paper suggests that a function accounting for Keynesian expectations can be modelled by using a class of the so-called ε-contaminated probability priors, where the parameter ε is suggestive of the quality of information about the relevant odds.

中文翻译：

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金融市场和凯恩斯的长期预期

本文提出了一种直观的方式来表示凯恩斯的预期理论及其对金融市场的影响。根据 Ellsberg 的建议，导出了凯恩斯不确定性下资产估值的连贯预期函数。通过遵循从概率论的非数值概率到一般理论的期望的线索，本文建议可以通过使用一类所谓的 ε-污染来模拟凯恩斯期望的函数。概率先验，其中参数 ε 暗示有关相关赔率的信息质量。