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Economic impacts and risks of climate change under failure and success of the Paris Agreement
Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences ( IF 5.2 ) Pub Date : 2021-06-25 , DOI: 10.1111/nyas.14652 Francisco Estrada 1, 2, 3 , W J Wouter Botzen 2, 4
Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences ( IF 5.2 ) Pub Date : 2021-06-25 , DOI: 10.1111/nyas.14652 Francisco Estrada 1, 2, 3 , W J Wouter Botzen 2, 4
Affiliation
The Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) represent the world's first effort toward the Paris Agreement goal of keeping global temperature increase well below 2 °C and pursuing 1.5 °C. Little is known about how much the proposed mitigation efforts can reduce the risks and economic damages from unabated climate change and about the consequences if key emitters drop the Paris Agreement. Here, we use CLIMRISK, an integrated assessment model designed to support climate policy at the global, national, and subnational scales where mitigation and adaptation policy decisions are made. We characterize the consequences of unabated climate change and the benefits of current climate policy proposals by means of probabilistic estimates of the economic damages of climate change and uni- and multivariate dynamic climate risk indices at a detailed spatial resolution. The results presented reveal that the economic costs and risks are highly unequally distributed between and within countries and larger than previously estimated when warming in urban areas and temporal persistence of impacts are accounted for. Costs and risks can be significantly limited by strict implementation of NDCs, but increase noticeably under noncompliance by large emitters, like the United States.
中文翻译:
《巴黎协定》成败下气候变化的经济影响和风险
国家自主贡献 (NDCs) 代表了世界为实现《巴黎协定》目标所做的首次努力,即将全球升温幅度控制在 2 ° C 以下并追求 1.5 °C. 关于拟议的缓解措施能在多大程度上减少气候变化未减弱带来的风险和经济损失,以及主要排放国放弃《巴黎协定》的后果,我们知之甚少。在这里,我们使用 CLIMRISK,这是一个综合评估模型,旨在支持全球、国家和地方层面的气候政策,在这些层面做出缓解和适应政策决策。我们通过对气候变化的经济损害的概率估计以及详细的空间分辨率的单变量和多变量动态气候风险指数来描述有增无减的气候变化的后果和当前气候政策建议的好处。所呈现的结果表明,当考虑到城市地区变暖和影响的时间持续性时,经济成本和风险在国家之间和国家内部的分布非常不均,并且比先前估计的要大。严格执行 NDC 可以显着限制成本和风险,但在美国等大型排放国不遵守规定的情况下,成本和风险会显着增加。
更新日期:2021-06-25
中文翻译:
《巴黎协定》成败下气候变化的经济影响和风险
国家自主贡献 (NDCs) 代表了世界为实现《巴黎协定》目标所做的首次努力,即将全球升温幅度控制在 2 ° C 以下并追求 1.5 °C. 关于拟议的缓解措施能在多大程度上减少气候变化未减弱带来的风险和经济损失,以及主要排放国放弃《巴黎协定》的后果,我们知之甚少。在这里,我们使用 CLIMRISK,这是一个综合评估模型,旨在支持全球、国家和地方层面的气候政策,在这些层面做出缓解和适应政策决策。我们通过对气候变化的经济损害的概率估计以及详细的空间分辨率的单变量和多变量动态气候风险指数来描述有增无减的气候变化的后果和当前气候政策建议的好处。所呈现的结果表明,当考虑到城市地区变暖和影响的时间持续性时,经济成本和风险在国家之间和国家内部的分布非常不均,并且比先前估计的要大。严格执行 NDC 可以显着限制成本和风险,但在美国等大型排放国不遵守规定的情况下,成本和风险会显着增加。