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Exploring anticipated futures: Dutch Grassroot Initiatives anticipating futures in the energy transition
Futures ( IF 3.788 ) Pub Date : 2021-06-25 , DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2021.102797
Sietske Veenman , Vera Kusters , Pascal Beckers

In the energy transition process, Grassroot Initiatives (GIs) are increasingly recognized by both researchers and policy makers as new actors. GIs aim to create a sustainable society in both generation and consumption of energy, responding to the local situation, interests and values of the communities involved (Seyfang and Smith, 2017). Looking at this definition, it appears that GIs anticipate certain futures when they initiate and develop their projects. For example, they steadily increase the production of renewables such as solar and wind to make a profit. The aim of this paper is to broadly explore the futures anticipated by GIs. To investigate this topic, we analyse anticipated futures of GIs communicated in the media, using a futures framing approach with athematic categorizations (probable, possible and preferred futures; optimistic and pessimistic futures; and the time horizon) and thematic aspects: environmental, political, economic, social and technical. The results show connections between certain thematic frames and the types of futures. For example, the desired futures anticipated by GIs are dominantly environmental and social futures, while the expected future is mainly economic and technological. The environmental desired future has a long time horizon, while the social desired futures were anticipated in the very near future. Interestingly, politics play a relatively small role as anticipated future of GIs.



中文翻译:

探索预期的未来:荷兰草根倡议预测能源转型的未来

在能源转型过程中,草根倡议 (GI) 越来越被研究人员和政策制定者视为新的参与者。地理标志旨在创建一个能源生产和消费的可持续社会,响应当地情况、利益和相关社区的价值观(Seyfang 和 Smith,2017 年)。从这个定义来看,地理标志似乎在启动和开发项目时预期了某些未来。例如,他们稳步增加太阳能和风能等可再生能源的生产以获利。本文的目的是广泛探索地理标志预期的未来。为了研究这个话题,我们分析了在媒体中传播的地理标志的预期未来,使用未来框架方法和主题分类(可能的、可能的和首选的未来;乐观和悲观的未来;和时间范围)和主题方面:环境、政治、经济、社会和技术。结果显示了某些主题框架与期货类型之间的联系。例如,地理标志预期的预期未来主要是环境和社会未来,而预期未来主要是经济和技术。环境期望的未来具有很长的时间跨度,而社会期望的未来则在不久的将来被预期。有趣的是,政治在地理标志的预期未来中扮演的角色相对较小。地理标志所期望的未来主要是环境和社会未来,而预期的未来主要是经济和技术。环境期望的未来具有很长的时间跨度,而社会期望的未来则在不久的将来被预期。有趣的是,政治在地理标志的预期未来中扮演的角色相对较小。地理标志所期望的未来主要是环境和社会未来,而预期的未来主要是经济和技术。环境期望的未来具有很长的时间跨度,而社会期望的未来则在不久的将来被预期。有趣的是,政治在地理标志的预期未来中扮演的角色相对较小。

更新日期:2021-07-08
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