The construction of large infrastructures (e.g., railways, gas pipelines or power grids) is increasingly facing widespread and violent opposition of radical environmentalist and ideological groups. Therefore, it is necessary to consider also the risk related to violent opposition actions when selecting construction sites. However, the classical paradigm of risk considering probability and impact hardly applies in this context, especially because of the difficulty of assessing probabilities, due to the lack of historical and/or reliable data. This paper develops a novel framework to support the selection of construction sites for infrastructure development, considering the risk of attacks by radical or ideologically motivated groups. The main originality is that the risk of attacks is evaluated considering the attractiveness of the different locations for the attackers, based on several criteria. Specifically, a novel multi-criteria decision model is introduced, which involves fourteen criteria related to the effort required to the opponents for performing the attack and to the expected outcomes of the attack in terms of potential damage to the targeted infrastructures and visibility of the action; moreover, the lifespan of the construction site and its influence on the possibility of an attack are taken into account. The criteria have been selected by a pool of forty-four Subject Matter Experts (SMEs), i.e., security managers and experts from the academia, industry and law enforcement. With such criteria, it is possible to construct a holistic index of attractiveness and quantify it by the Sparse Analytic Hierarchy Process (SAHP), based on the evaluations of the criteria provided by the pool of SMEs. The proposed methodology is applied to support the localization of the construction sites for the cross-border section of the Turin–Lyon High Speed and High Capacity Railway, including a new base-tunnel. Indeed, such an 8.6 billion Euro project has experienced strong opposition in Italy and, hence, security has become one of the main issues to be considered. The proposed model constitutes a decision aid tool to support the selection of construction plans, considering attractiveness and impact of attack.

大型基础设施（如铁路、天然气管道或电网）的建设正日益面临激进环保主义者和意识形态团体的广泛而猛烈的反对。因此，在选择工地时，也有必要考虑与暴力反对行为相关的风险。然而，考虑概率和影响的经典风险范式在这种情况下几乎不适用，特别是因为由于缺乏历史和/或可靠数据而难以评估概率。本文开发了一个新颖的框架，以支持选择用于基础设施开发的建筑工地，同时考虑到激进或有意识形态动机的团体攻击的风险。主要的独创性是根据几个标准，考虑不同位置对攻击者的吸引力来评估攻击风险。具体来说，引入了一种新颖的多标准决策模型，其中涉及 14 个标准，这些标准与对手执行攻击所需的努力以及攻击的预期结果（就对目标基础设施的潜在损害和行动的可见性而言）相关。 ; 此外，还考虑了建筑工地的寿命及其对攻击可能性的影响。标准是由四十四人选出来的 这涉及 14 项标准，这些标准与对手执行攻击所需的努力以及攻击的预期结果（就对目标基础设施的潜在损害和行动的可见性而言）有关；此外，还考虑了建筑工地的寿命及其对攻击可能性的影响。标准是由四十四人选出来的 这涉及 14 项标准，这些标准与对手执行攻击所需的努力以及攻击的预期结果（就对目标基础设施的潜在损害和行动的可见性而言）有关；此外，还考虑了建筑工地的寿命及其对攻击可能性的影响。标准是由四十四人选出来的主题专家(SME)，即来自学术界、工业界和执法部门的安全经理和专家。有了这样的标准，就可以构建一个整体的吸引力指数，并通过稀疏层次分析过程对其进行量化(SAHP)，基于对中小企业池提供的标准的评估。所提议的方法用于支持都灵-里昂高速和高容量铁路跨境段的建筑工地本地化，包括一条新的基础隧道。的确，这样一个86亿欧元的项目在意大利遭到了强烈反对，因此安全问题成为需要考虑的主要问题之一。所提出的模型构成了一个决策辅助工具，以支持建设计划的选择，考虑到攻击的吸引力和影响。