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Price and income elasticities of residential electricity demand in Brazil and policy implications
Utilities Policy ( IF 4 ) Pub Date : 2021-06-26 , DOI: 10.1016/j.jup.2021.101250
Luís Oscar Silva Martins , Inara Rosa Amorim , Vinícius de Araújo Mendes , Marcelo Santana Silva , Francisco Gaudêncio Mendonça Freires , Eduardo Oliveira Teles , Ednildo Andrade Torres

The research objective was to estimate Brazil's residential electricity consumption behavior, given alterations in price and income. A balanced panel with monthly data was used for the 27 states of the country between 2004 and 2019, distributed into the five regions of Brazil. This approach enabled the calculation of price elasticity and income parameters, in the short and long terms, for both national and regional scenarios. They were used, as control variables, the average temperature, which was not used in previous research due to the use of a database with a higher level of aggregation, and the rainfall, that can be considered an important parameter in the Brazilian case where most of the electricity is obtained from hydroelectric generation, however, it has never been used in previous studies. The econometric model was estimated using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM), version System - GMM (SY - GMM), to avoid dynamic bias of the panel and a serial correlation problem, which has not been considered in previous studies in Brazil. The results show that, although the short and long-term elasticities for the national scenario are similar to previous studies when analyzed regionally, the parameters proved to be quite different from previous research. Based on the results, adjustments were proposed for the Brazilian electricity price policy.



中文翻译:

巴西居民用电需求的价格和收入弹性及政策影响

研究目标是根据价格和收入的变化估计巴西的住宅用电行为。2004 年至 2019 年期间,该国 27 个州使用了具有月度数据的平衡面板,分布在巴西的五个地区。这种方法能够计算短期和长期的国家和区域情景的价格弹性和收入参数。它们被用作控制变量、平均温度(由于使用具有更高聚合水平的数据库而未在之前的研究中使用)和降雨量,这在巴西的情况下可被视为重要参数,其中大多数的电力来自水力发电,然而,它从未在以前的研究中使用过。System - GMM( SY - GMM),避免面板的动态偏差和序列相关问题,这在巴西之前的研究中没有考虑过。结果表明,虽然国家情景的短期和长期弹性在区域分析时与先前的研究相似,但参数证明与先前的研究有很大不同。在此基础上,对巴西电价政策提出了调整建议。

更新日期:2021-06-28
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