We evaluate the global welfare consequences of increases in mortality and poverty generated by the Covid-19 pandemic. Increases in mortality are measured in terms of the number of years of life lost (LY) to the pandemic. Additional years spent in poverty (PY) are conservatively estimated using growth estimates for 2020 and two different scenarios for its distributional characteristics. Using years of life as a welfare metric yields a single parameter that captures the underlying trade-off between lives and livelihoods: how many PYs have the same welfare cost as one LY. Taking an agnostic view of this parameter, we compare estimates of LYs and PYs across countries for different scenarios. Three main findings arise. First, we estimate that, as of early June 2020, the pandemic (and the observed private and policy responses) had generated at least 68 million additional poverty years and 4.3 million years of life lost across 150 countries. The ratio of PYs to LYs is very large in most countries, suggesting that the poverty consequences of the crisis are of paramount importance. Second, this ratio declines systematically with GDP per capita: poverty accounts for a much greater share of the welfare costs in poorer countries. Finally, a comparison of these baseline results with mortality estimates in a counterfactual “herd immunity” scenario suggests that welfare losses would be greater in the latter in most countries.

我们评估了 Covid-19 大流行导致的死亡率和贫困增加对全球福利的影响。死亡率的增加是根据因大流行而损失的生命年数 (LY) 来衡量的。额外的贫困年数 (PY) 是使用 2020 年的增长估计及其分布特征的两种不同情景保守估计的。将寿命年数用作福利指标会产生一个单一参数，该参数捕获生命与生计之间的潜在权衡：多少 PY 具有与一个 LY 相同的福利成本。对此参数采取不可知论的观点，我们比较了不同情景下各国 LY 和 PY 的估计值。出现了三个主要发现。首先，我们估计，截至 2020 年 6 月上旬，大流行病（以及观察到的私人和政策反应）在 150 个国家造成了至少 6800 万年的额外贫困和 430 万年的生命损失。大多数国家的 PY 与 LY 之比都非常大，这表明危机的贫困后果至关重要。其次，这一比率随着人均 GDP 的增加而系统地下降：贫困在较贫穷国家的福利成本中所占比例要大得多。最后，将这些基线结果与反事实“群体免疫”情景中的死亡率估计值进行比较表明，在大多数国家，后者的福利损失会更大。这表明危机的贫困后果至关重要。其次，这一比率随着人均 GDP 的增加而系统地下降：贫困在较贫穷国家的福利成本中所占比例要大得多。最后，将这些基线结果与反事实“群体免疫”情景中的死亡率估计值进行比较表明，在大多数国家，后者的福利损失会更大。这表明危机的贫困后果至关重要。其次，这一比率随着人均 GDP 的增加而系统地下降：贫困在较贫穷国家的福利成本中所占比例要大得多。最后，将这些基线结果与反事实“群体免疫”情景中的死亡率估计值进行比较表明，在大多数国家，后者的福利损失会更大。