For many years, there was an unanswered theoretical question among Post-Keynesian scholars: What’s the behaviour through time of capacity utilisation after an aggregate demand shock? Under a (baseline and extended) Neo-Kaleckian framework, there should be a persistent effect on capacity utilisation to a shock like this one. On the other hand, Classical-Keynesian scholars are inclined to emphasise a continuous tendency towards normal utilisation. I tried to shed some light on this issue by adopting a Panel Structural VAR, time series SVAR and Local Projections. My findings, based on national quarterly data for 34 countries, suggest that the nature of the effects on effective capacity utilisation of shocks to the level of economic activity is merely transitory.

多年来，在后凯恩斯主义学者中存在一个悬而未决的理论问题：总需求冲击后，产能利用率随时间的变化是什么？在（基线和扩展的）新卡莱克框架下，对于像这样的冲击应该对产能利用率产生持续影响。另一方面，古典凯恩斯主义学者倾向于强调正常利用的持续趋势。我试图通过采用面板结构 VAR、时间序列 SVAR 和局部投影来阐明这个问题。我的研究结果基于 34 个国家的国家季度数据，表明冲击对经济活动水平的有效产能利用的影响的性质只是暂时的。