The COVID-19 epidemic has caused a lack of data on highway transportation accidents involving dangerous goods in China in the first quarter of 2020, and this lack of data has seriously affected research on highway transportation accidents involving dangerous goods. This study strives to compensate for this lack to a certain extent and reduce the impact of missing data on research of dangerous goods transportation accidents. Data pertaining to 2340 dangerous goods accidents in the process of highway transportation in China from 2013 to 2019 are obtained with webpage crawling software. In this paper, the number of monthly highway transportation accidents involving dangerous goods from 2013 to 2019 is determined, and the time series of transportation accidents and an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) prediction model are established. The prediction accuracy of the model is evaluated based on the actual number of dangerous goods highway transportation accidents in China from 2017 to 2019. The results indicate that the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) between the actual and predicted values of dangerous goods highway transportation accidents from 2017 to 2019 is 0.147, 0.315 and 0.29. Therefore, the model meets the prediction accuracy requirements. Then, the prediction model is applied to predict the number of dangerous goods transportation accidents in the first quarter of 2020 in China. Twenty-two accidents are predicted in January, 23 accidents in February and 27 accidents in March. The results provide a reference for the study of dangerous goods transportation accidents and the formulation of accident prevention and emergency measures.

COVID-19疫情导致2020年一季度我国公路危险品运输事故数据缺失，严重影响公路危险品运输事故研究。本研究力求在一定程度上弥补这一不足，减少数据缺失对危险品运输事故研究的影响。利用网页爬虫软件获取2013-2019年我国公路运输过程中发生的2340起危险品事故数据。本文确定了2013年至2019年每月涉及危险品的公路运输事故数量，建立了交通事故时间序列和自回归移动平均（ARMA）预测模型。以2017-2019年我国危险货物公路运输事故实际发生次数为基础，对模型的预测精度进行评价。结果表明，危险货物公路运输事故实际值与预测值的平均绝对百分比误差（MAPE）从 2017 年到 2019 年分别为 0.147、0.315 和 0.29。因此，该模型满足预测精度要求。然后，应用该预测模型对2020年一季度我国危险品运输事故起数进行预测。1月份预计有22起事故，2月份有23起，3月份有27起。研究结果为危险货物运输事故的研究和事故预防与应急措施的制定提供了参考。