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The Global Trends and Regional Differences in Incidence of Dengue Infection from 1990 to 2019: An Analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
Infectious Diseases and Therapy ( IF 5.4 ) Pub Date : 2021-06-26 , DOI: 10.1007/s40121-021-00470-2
Min Du 1 , Wenzhan Jing 1 , Min Liu 1 , Jue Liu 1
Affiliation  

Introduction

Dengue, as a neglected tropical disease, brings a heavy socioeconomic burden. To provide tailored global prevention strategies, we analyzed the global trends and regional differences in incidence of dengue infection from 1990 to 2019.

Methods

We obtained data on annual dengue episodes and incidence rates, which reflected the epidemic status of dengue infection from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study. The changes in dengue episodes and estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) of the age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) were calculated to quantify the temporal trends of dengue infection.

Results

Globally, dengue ASR increased by 1.70% (95% CI 1.62%–1.78%) per year from 1990 to 2011; subsequently, it decreased by 0.41% (95% CI 0.20%–0.62%) per year from 2011 to 2019. However, the global number of dengue episodes increased steadily by 85.47% from 30.67 million in 1990 to 56.88 million in 2019. Against the global trend of decreasing ASR from 2011 to 2019, an increasing trend was reported in Oceania (EAPC 11.01, 95% CI 8.79–13.27), East Asia (EAPC 4.84, 95% CI 2.70–7.03) and Southeast Asia (EAPC 0.38, 95% CI 0.13–0.62). For socio-demographic index (SDI) regions, ASR continued to have an increasing trend in the middle (EAPC 0.26, 95% CI 0.07–0.45) and high-middle (EAPC 1.70, 95% CI 0.98–2.42) SDI regions from 2011 to 2019. In contrast to the global peak age of dengue incidence rate (10 to 25 years), the dengue incidence rate of older people (> 65 years) was higher than in other age groups in low and low-middle SDI regions. Additionally, the proportions of dengue episodes in the > 70-year-old age group increased in 2019 (using the baseline in 1990 or 2011) in most GBD regions.

Conclusions

Global dengue episodes have increased tremendously in 3 decades. Although global dengue ASR decreased in the last decade, it is still increasing in hyperendemic regions including Oceania, East Asia and Southeast Asia, and also in the middle and high-middle SDI regions. More attention should be paid to the elderly because of the higher dengue incidence rate among them in low and low-middle SDI regions and the increased proportions of dengue episodes among the elderly in most GBD regions. Therefore, more efforts should be undertaken to develop targeted prevention strategies for crucial regions and older populations.



中文翻译:

1990 年至 2019 年登革热感染发病率的全球趋势和区域差异:来自 2019 年全球疾病负担研究的分析

介绍

登革热作为一种被忽视的热带疾病,带来了沉重的社会经济负担。为了提供量身定制的全球预防策略,我们分析了 1990 年至 2019 年登革热感染发病率的全球趋势和区域差异。

方法

我们从 2019 年全球疾病负担 (GBD) 研究中获得了年度登革热发作和发病率的数据,这些数据反映了登革热感染的流行状况。计算登革热发作的变化和年龄标准化发病率 (ASR) 的估计年度百分比变化 (EAPC),以量化登革热感染的时间趋势。

结果

从 1990 年到 2011 年,全球范围内登革热 ASR 每年增加 1.70%(95% CI 1.62%–1.78%);随后,从 2011 年到 2019 年,每年下降 0.41%(95% CI 0.20%–0.62%)。 然而,全球登革热发作次数从 1990 年的 3067 万例稳步增加到 2019 年的 5688 万例,增长了 85.47%。从 2011 年到 2019 年全球 ASR 呈下降趋势,大洋洲 (EAPC 11.01, 95% CI 8.79–13.27)、东亚 (EAPC 4.84, 95% CI 2.70–7.03) 和东南亚 (EAPC 0.38, 95) 呈上升趋势% CI 0.13–0.62)。对于社会人口指数 (SDI) 区域,ASR 在中间 (EAPC 0.26, 95% CI 0.07–0.45) 和中高 (EAPC 1.70, 95% CI 0.98–2.42) SDI 地区继续呈上升趋势到 2019 年。 与全球登革热发病率高峰年龄(10 至 25 岁)相比,中低SDI地区老年人(>65岁)登革热发病率高于其他年龄组。此外,在大多数 GBD 地区,2019 年(使用 1990 年或 2011 年的基线)> 70 岁年龄组的登革热发作比例有所增加。

结论

全球登革热事件在过去的 3 年里急剧增加。尽管过去十年全球登革热 ASR 有所下降,但在包括大洋洲、东亚和东南亚在内的高流行地区以及 SDI 中高地区,它仍在增加。由于SDI中低、中低地区老年人登革热发病率较高,大多数GBD地区老年人登革热发病比例增加,因此应更加关注老年人。因此,应作出更多努力,为关键地区和老年人群制定有针对性的预防战略。

更新日期:2021-06-28
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