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Is rice price a major source of inflation in the Philippines? A panel data analysis
Applied Economics Letters ( IF 1.287 ) Pub Date : 2021-06-25 , DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2021.1946470
Harold Glenn Valera 1 , Jean Balié 1 , Emiliano Magrini 2
Affiliation  

ABSTRACT

We estimate a panel vector auto-regression model using monthly prices for 17 regions in the Philippines from 2007 to 2019. Our results suggest that the effect of rice price on inflation is larger than the effect of fuel price and remittances. The results obtained are robust to various model specifications, different sub-periods, and inflation proxies. The impulse response functions for sub-samples of regions show two remarkable results. First, the response of inflation to a rice price shock varies according to poverty incidence by region. Second, the magnitude and persistence of this effect are larger for regions with high poverty rates. These results suggest that the Central Bank should keep alert in monitoring and assessing key developments in rice prices and supply.



中文翻译:

大米价格是菲律宾通货膨胀的主要来源吗?面板数据分析

摘要

我们使用 2007 年至 2019 年菲律宾 17 个地区的月度价格估计了面板向量自回归模型。我们的结果表明,大米价格对通货膨胀的影响大于燃料价格和汇款的影响。获得的结果对各种模型规范、不同的子时期和通货膨胀代理都是稳健的。区域子样本的脉冲响应函数显示出两个显着的结果。首先,通货膨胀对稻米价格冲击的反应因地区的贫困发生率而异。其次,对于贫困率高的地区,这种影响的幅度和持续性更大。这些结果表明,中央银行应在监测和评估大米价格和供应的关键发展方面保持警惕。

更新日期:2021-06-25
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