Using Constrained Optimization for the Allocation of COVID-19 Vaccines in the Philippines,Applied Health Economics and Health Policy

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Using Constrained Optimization for the Allocation of COVID-19 Vaccines in the Philippines
Applied Health Economics and Health Policy ( IF 3.6 ) Pub Date : 2021-06-25 , DOI: 10.1007/s40258-021-00667-z
Christian Alvin H Buhat _{1,

2} , Destiny S M Lutero _{1,

2} , Yancee H Olave _{1,

2} , Kemuel M Quindala _{1,

2} , Mary Grace P Recreo _{1,

2} , Dylan Antonio S J Talabis _{1,

2} , Monica C Torres _{1,

2} , Jerrold M Tubay _{1,

2} , Jomar F Rabajante _{1,

2}

Affiliation

Background

Vaccine allocation is a national concern especially for countries such as the Philippines that have limited resources in acquiring COVID-19 vaccines. As such, certain groups are suggested to be prioritized for vaccination to protect the most vulnerable before vaccinating others.

Objective

The study aims to determine an optimal and equitable allocation of COVID-19 vaccines in the Philippines that will minimize the projected number of additional COVID-19 deaths while satisfying the priority groups for immediate vaccination.

Methods

In this study, a linear programming model is formulated to determine an allocation of vaccines such that COVID-19 deaths are minimized while the prioritization framework set by the government is satisfied. Data used were collected up to November 2020. Total vaccine supply, vaccine effectiveness, vaccine cost, and projected deaths are analyzed. Results of the model are also compared to other allocation approaches.

Results

Results of the model show that a vaccine coverage of around 60–70% of the population can be enough for a community with limited supplies, and an increase in vaccine supply is beneficial if the initial coverage is less than the specified target range. Additionally, among the vaccines considered in the study, the one with 89.9% effectiveness and a 183 Philippine peso price per dose projected the lowest number of deaths. Compared with other model variations and common allocation approaches, the model has achieved both an optimal and equitable allocation.

Conclusions

Having a 100% coverage for vaccination with a 100% effectiveness rate of vaccine is ideal for all countries. However, some countries have limited resources. Therefore, the results of our study can be used by policymakers to determine an optimal and equitable distribution of COVID-19 vaccines for a country/community.

中文翻译：

在菲律宾使用约束优化分配 COVID-19 疫苗

背景

疫苗分配是一个国家关注的问题，特别是对于像菲律宾这样在获取 COVID-19 疫苗方面资源有限的国家而言。因此，建议某些群体优先接种疫苗，以在给其他人接种疫苗之前保护最脆弱的群体。

客观的

该研究旨在确定菲律宾 COVID-19 疫苗的最佳和公平分配，这将最大限度地减少预计的额外 COVID-19 死亡人数，同时满足立即接种疫苗的优先群体。

方法

在这项研究中，制定了一个线性规划模型来确定疫苗的分配，以便在满足政府设定的优先级框架的同时最大限度地减少 COVID-19 死亡。使用的数据收集到 2020 年 11 月。分析了总疫苗供应、疫苗有效性、疫苗成本和预计死亡人数。该模型的结果也与其他分配方法进行了比较。

结果

该模型的结果表明，对于供应有限的社区来说，大约 60-70% 的疫苗覆盖率就足够了，如果初始覆盖率低于指定的目标范围，则增加疫苗供应是有益的。此外，在研究中考虑的疫苗中，有效性为 89.9% 且每剂价格为 183 菲律宾比索的疫苗预计死亡人数最少。与其他模型变体和常见分配方式相比，该模型实现了最优分配和公平分配。