Disaster scenarios are constructed by integrating natural hazard phenomena and social science sources of information. We profiled 51 natural hazard events of nineteenth century Kashmir that provide insights into the impacts of varying degree of severity that spread through the socioeconomic and political systems, influenced adaptation, and increased the consequences of the resulting disasters. The root cause of these disasters was embedded in the social, natural, and political economic systems of their time, where vulnerabilities overlapped and interacted periodically with successive colonial regimes and acted as tipping points. The combined effect of successive colonial regimes, inept administration, rigid political economy, and natural hazards made the situation go from bad to worse and reduced Kashmir to the depths of distress and subjugation. Over the arc of the nineteenth century, a series of disasters led the Kashmiri population to learn how to live with disasters and minimize risk, bringing about the evolution of social and environmental knowledge. Understanding the natural hazard vulnerability of the Kashmir Valley through archival narratives can help in scenario building to translate findings into formats that reduce related risk now as it did then. The resulting information can be useful for regional design, planning, and policy responses to promote disaster risk reduction.

灾害情景是通过整合自然灾害现象和社会科学信息源来构建的。我们分析了 19 世纪克什米尔的 51 次自然灾害事件，这些事件深入了解了不同严重程度的影响，这些影响通过社会经济和政治系统传播，影响了适应，并增加了由此产生的灾难的后果。这些灾难的根源在于他们那个时代的社会、自然和政治经济体系，在这些体系中，脆弱性与连续的殖民政权重叠并定期相互作用，并成为引爆点。历届殖民政权、无能的管理、僵化的政治经济和自然灾害的综合影响使局势每况愈下，并使克什米尔陷入困境和征服的深度。在 19 世纪的整个过程中，一系列灾难使克什米尔人学会了如何应对灾难并将风险降至最低，从而带来了社会和环境知识的进化。通过档案叙述了解克什米尔山谷的自然灾害脆弱性有助于情景构建，将调查结果转化为现在像过去一样降低相关风险的格式。由此产生的信息可用于区域设计、规划和政策响应，以促进减少灾害风险。通过档案叙述了解克什米尔山谷的自然灾害脆弱性有助于情景构建，将调查结果转化为现在像过去一样降低相关风险的格式。由此产生的信息可用于区域设计、规划和政策响应，以促进减少灾害风险。通过档案叙述了解克什米尔山谷的自然灾害脆弱性有助于情景构建，将调查结果转化为现在像过去一样降低相关风险的格式。由此产生的信息可用于区域设计、规划和政策响应，以促进减少灾害风险。