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Agricultural Trade and Ultra-Poor in Pakistan: An Application of CGE Model
Millennial Asia Pub Date : 2021-06-25 , DOI: 10.1177/09763996211010607
Saud Ahmad 1 , Muhammad Aamir Khan 2 , Usman Mustafa 3
Affiliation  

In the modern integrated world, the synthesis of countries for trade is often viewed as a crucial source of income and growth disparities across nations. Well-known channels of economic theory can trace the growth effects of trade. However, there is a substantial conflict among empirical studies regarding gains from agricultural trade. Therefore, this study examines the economy-wide impact of agriculture trade liberalization/protection on agriculture production, agriculture trade, income redistribution and public welfare. An extension of the GTAP model known as MyGTAP is employed and the world economy is disaggregated into 20 regions and 11 sectors with Pakistan as a home country. Further, results explore greater gains from an increased level of liberalization towards the agriculture sector in terms of agriculture production, real factors’ wage, terms of trade and household welfare. Rural households enjoy relatively higher real income and income inequality declines in Pakistan in the case of liberalization and protection. However, comparatively protectionism reduces inequality by the lower extent, and said study also points out that neither change in real gross domestic product nor public welfare turns out to be a good indicator of assessing potential impact of trade policies on income inequality.



中文翻译:

巴基斯坦的农业贸易和超贫困人口:CGE 模型的应用

在现代一体化的世界中,贸易国家的综合往往被视为国家间收入和增长差距的重要来源。著名的经济理论渠道可以追踪贸易的增长效应。然而,关于农业贸易收益的实证研究之间存在重大冲突。因此,本研究考察了农业贸易自由化/保护对农业生产、农业贸易、收入再分配和公共福利的整体经济影响。采用了称为 MyGTAP 的 GTAP 模型的扩展,世界经济被分解为 20 个地区和 11 个部门,其中巴基斯坦为母国。此外,结果还探讨了在农业生产、实际要素工资、贸易条件和家庭福利。在自由化和保护的情况下,巴基斯坦农村家庭享有相对较高的实际收入和收入不平等下降。然而,相对保护主义在较低程度上减少了不平等,该研究还指出,实际国内生产总值和公共福利的变化都不是评估贸易政策对收入不平等的潜在影响的良好指标。

更新日期:2021-06-25
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