The impacts on global water resources may be more intense due to climate change, making access to water more difficult and, consequently, maintaining life. In the Amazon, the effect may be even worse, as it is one of the region’s most vulnerable to these changes. Thus, the objective is to analyze future variations in the volumes and duration curves of the flow of the Amazon River to verify the hydrological response to climate changes. The daily flows observed were from the database of the National Water Agency of Brazil. Future flow data was generated for the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 6.0 and 8.5 scenarios of the Global hydrological model WaterGAP2 forced by the General Circulation Models MIROC5 and HadGEM2-ES, obtained from the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) platform. The flow duration curves of the base periods were created from the last 20 years of observed data for each flow meter station, as well as the simulated base period curves (2000–2019), to compare with the curves of future scenarios (from 2020). For a more punctual analysis, decadal volumes were also analyzed. WaterGAP2 was efficient, presenting the classification “very good” for most stations analyzed according to the adopted statistical indicators. Most of the extreme flows were observed from 2080 to 2099. For WaterGAP2 (MIROC5), in most stations, volumes were below the expected decadal average for the century generally from 2020 to 2059. Increasing again after 2060 for WaterGAP2 (HadGEM2-ES) projections, the volumes are usually close or below the decadal average, with a decrease from 2060 (generally for RCP 8.5).

由于气候变化，对全球水资源的影响可能更加严重，使获取水资源变得更加困难，从而维持生命。在亚马逊地区，影响可能更糟，因为它是该地区最容易受到这些变化影响的地区之一。因此，目标是分析亚马逊河流量和持续时间曲线的未来变化，以验证水文对气候变化的响应。观察到的每日流量来自巴西国家水务局的数据库。未来流量数据是为全球水文模型 WaterGAP2 的代表性浓度路径 (RCP) 6.0 和 8.5 情景生成的，该情景由一般循环模型 MIROC5 和 HadGEM2-ES 强制执行，从跨部门影响模型比对项目 (ISIMIP) 平台获得。根据每个流量计站最近20年的观测数据以及模拟的基期曲线（2000-2019年）创建基期的流量持续时间曲线，以与未来情景（从2020年）的曲线进行比较. 为了更准时的分析，还分析了十年卷。WaterGAP2 是有效的，根据采用的统计指标分析的大多数站点的分类“非常好”。大多数极端流量是在 2080 年至 2099 年期间观测到的。对于 WaterGAP2 (MIROC5)，在大多数站点中，水量通常低于 2020 年至 2059 年本世纪的预期十年平均值。 WaterGAP2 (HadGEM2-ES) 预测在 2060 年后再次增加，数量通常接近或低于十年平均值，从 2060 年开始下降（通常为 RCP 8.5）。