Abstract

This paper analyzes the US Federal Reserve (Fed)’s landmark 2012 decision to adopt an explicit inflation target for the first time in its history. The paper focuses on explaining the dynamics of this policy shift. The relevant literatures authoritatively establish types of incremental change and the transformative nature of this kind of change. Using the case of the Fed’s policy shift, this paper advances a framework for explaining when the likelihood of such change increases, and how ‘policy entrepreneurs’’ strategies can affect this likelihood. Its theoretical discussions are broadly applicable to other techno-political institutions. The paper’s evidence comes from previously non-public internal Fed transcripts, and its discussions draw from diverse literatures – on the Fed and central banks, on multilateral economic institutions with similarly techno-political characteristics, historical institutionalism, as well as Macroeconomics.

摘要

本文分析了美国联邦储备委员会 (Fed) 2012 年历史上首次采用明确的通胀目标这一具有里程碑意义的决定。本文重点解释了这一政策转变的动态。相关文献权威地确立了增量变化的类型以及这种变化的变革性。本文以美联储的政策转变为例，提出了一个框架来解释这种变化的可能性何时增加，以及“政策企业家”策略如何影响这种可能性。它的理论讨论广泛适用于其他技术政治制度。该论文的证据来自之前非公开的美联储内部记录，其讨论来自不同的文献——关于美联储和中央银行，