This paper examines the effects of demographic dynamics on economic growth, with a focus on the working-age population and the saving rate in 17 Asian economies for the past and future periods of 1970–2018 and 2018–2050, respectively. The study applies a panel vector-autoregressive model, given the endogenous interactions among the variables. The main findings are as follows: first, the direct channel to economic growth is from the working-age population share and the indirect channel is through the saving rate; second, there is a feedback effect from economic growth to the saving rate; third, the contribution ratio of the population-bonus effect to economic growth for the 1970–2018 period was approximately 30 per cent on average, which was consistent with the ratios found in previous studies; and fourth, in the projections for 2018–2050, the magnitudes of the ‘population-onus’ effect in selected economies are very large (minus 1 or 2 per cent)—even greater than found in previous studies—which was due to the earlier onset of the ‘population onus’ with aging.

中文翻译：

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重新审视人口动态对亚洲经济增长的影响：具有储蓄渠道的面板向量自回归方法

本文考察了人口动态对经济增长的影响，重点分别关注 17 个亚洲经济体过去和未来 1970-2018 年和 2018-2050 年的劳动年龄人口和储蓄率。考虑到变量之间的内生相互作用，该研究应用了面板向量自回归模型。主要发现如下：一是经济增长的直接渠道是劳动年龄人口占比，间接渠道是储蓄率；二是经济增长对储蓄率有反馈作用；第三，1970-2018年人口红利效应对经济增长的贡献率平均约为30%，与以往研究发现的比例一致；第四，在 2018-2050 年的预测中，