One of the most notable trends in the U.S. housing market in the recent decades is the increasing house price growth (HPG) synchronization across states. Using four decades of data, we provide novel evidence that the increasing HPG synchronization leads to higher business cycle alignment across U.S. states. One standard deviation increase in HPG synchronization is associated with a 15%, 12%, and 10% increase in the alignment of the states’ gross state product, employment, and income growth, respectively. The relation is stronger between states with similar banking development and in non-tradable sectors. Supporting both the collateral and direct wealth effect channels, we find more aligned house-secured borrowing activities and consumption growth between states with more synchronized house price growth. Results also hold at the MSA level and are robust to various endogeneity controls, including a Bartik-type instrument. Overall, our findings suggest that the housing market integration can lead to amplified business cycles associated with an increased systemic economic risk at the country level.

近几十年来，美国房地产市场最显着的趋势之一是各州房价增长 (HPG) 同步增加。使用四个十年的数据，我们提供了新的证据，证明日益增长的 HPG 同步导致美国各州更高的商业周期一致性。HPG 同步的一个标准偏差增加与各州的州生产总值、就业和收入增长的一致性分别增加 15%、12% 和 10% 相关。银行业发展相似的国家和非贸易部门之间的关系更为密切。支持抵押品和直接财富效应渠道，我们发现房价增长更加同步的州之间的房屋抵押借贷活动和消费增长更加一致。结果也保持在 MSA 水平，并且对各种内生性控制（包括 Bartik 型仪器）都是稳健的。总体而言，我们的研究结果表明，房地产市场一体化可能导致商业周期扩大，从而增加国家层面的系统性经济风险。