The demand for international tourism in Australia and New Zealand is vital to the South Pacific’s tourism-reliant islands. However, at the time of this study these two countries find themselves in precarious economic situations. The question addressed by this study is, will tourism imports in these two countries pick up on the back of economic recovery? We answer this question using time-difference analysis and the newly developed Hamilton filter. The short answer is yes, but more so in New Zealand than Australia. The key findings of this study are that tourism demand in both Australia and New Zealand is pro-cyclical, tourism demand cycles in New Zealand strongly lag business cycles by 1 year, whereas in Australia, they weakly lag business cycles by one quarter, and, overall, tourism demand and business cycles in New Zealand share a stronger association than they do in Australia.

澳大利亚和新西兰对国际旅游业的需求对南太平洋依赖旅游业的岛屿至关重要。然而，在进行本研究时，这两个国家发现自己处于不稳定的经济状况。本研究提出的问题是，这两个国家的旅游进口是否会随着经济复苏而回升？我们使用时差分析和新开发的 Hamilton 滤波器来回答这个问题。简短的回答是肯定的，但在新西兰比澳大利亚更是如此。本研究的主要发现是，澳大利亚和新西兰的旅游需求都是顺周期的，新西兰的旅游需求周期强烈滞后于商业周期 1 年，而在澳大利亚，它们弱滞后于商业周期四分之一，并且，全面的，