Populations of large mammals have declined at alarming rates, especially in areas with intensified land use where species can only persist in small habitat fragments. To support conservation planning, we developed habitat suitability models for the Walia ibex (Capra walie), an endangered wild goat endemic to the Simen Mountains, Ethiopia. We calibrated several models that differ in statistical properties to estimate the spatial extent of suitable habitats of the Walia ibex in the Simen Mountains, as well as in other parts of the Ethiopian highlands to assess potentially suitable areas outside the current distribution range of the species. We further addressed the potential consequences of future climate change using two climate models, each with four emission scenarios. Model projections estimated the potential suitable habitat under current climate to 476-680 km2 in Simen and to 6540-8083 km2 in other Ethiopian mountains. Under projected climate change by 2080, the suitable habitat became larger in Simen but smaller in other parts of Ethiopia. The predicted expansion in Simen is contrary to the general expectation of shrinking suitable habitats for high-elevation species under climate warming, and may partly be due to the ruggedness of these particular mountains. The Walia ibex has a wide altitudinal range and is able to exploit very steep slopes, allowing it to track the expected vegetation shift to higher altitudes. However, this potential positive impact may not last long under continued climate warming, as the species will not have much more new space left to colonize. Our study indicates that the current distribution range can be substantially increased by reintroducing and/or translocating the species to other areas with suitable habitat. Indeed, to increase the viability and prospects for survival of this flagship species, we strongly recommend human-assisted reintroduction to other Ethiopian mountains. Emulating the successful reintroduction of the Alpine ibex that has spread from a single mountain in Italy to its historical ranges of the Alps in Europe might contribute to saving the Walia ibex from extinction.

中文翻译：

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为限制范围的哺乳动物寻找新空间：濒临灭绝的 Walia ibex

大型哺乳动物的数量以惊人的速度下降，特别是在土地使用集约化的地区，物种只能在小的栖息地碎片中生存。为了支持保护规划，我们为 Walia ibex (Capra walie) 开发了栖息地适宜性模型，这是一种埃塞俄比亚泗门山脉特有的濒危野山羊。我们校准了几个统计特性不同的模型，以估计西门山脉以及埃塞俄比亚高地其他地区的瓦利亚野山羊适宜栖息地的空间范围，以评估该物种当前分布范围之外的潜在适宜地区。我们使用两个气候模型进一步解决了未来气候变化的潜在后果，每个模型都有四种排放情景。模型预测估计，在当前气候下，泗门的潜在适宜栖息地为 476-680 平方公里，埃塞俄比亚其他山区为 6540-8083 平方公里。根据预计到 2080 年的气候变化，西门子的适宜栖息地变大，但埃塞俄比亚其他地区的栖息地变小。预期的泗门扩张与气候变暖下高海拔物种适宜栖息地缩小的普遍预期相反，部分原因可能是这些特定山脉的崎岖不平。Walia ibex 具有广泛的海拔范围，能够利用非常陡峭的斜坡，使其能够跟踪预期的植被向更高海拔的转移。然而，在气候持续变暖的情况下，这种潜在的积极影响可能不会持续很长时间，因为该物种将没有更多的新空间可以殖民。我们的研究表明，通过将物种重新引入和/或转移到其他具有合适栖息地的地区，可以大大增加当前的分布范围。事实上，为了提高这一旗舰物种的生存能力和生存前景，我们强烈建议在人类协助下重新引入埃塞俄比亚的其他山脉。模仿从意大利的一座山峰蔓延到欧洲阿尔卑斯山历史范围内的高山野山羊的成功重新引入，可能有助于拯救瓦利亚野山羊免于灭绝。我们强烈建议在人类协助下重新引入埃塞俄比亚的其他山脉。模仿从意大利的一座山峰蔓延到欧洲阿尔卑斯山历史范围内的高山野山羊的成功重新引入，可能有助于拯救瓦利亚野山羊免于灭绝。我们强烈建议在人类协助下重新引入埃塞俄比亚的其他山脉。模仿从意大利的一座山峰蔓延到欧洲阿尔卑斯山历史范围内的高山野山羊的成功重新引入，可能有助于拯救瓦利亚野山羊免于灭绝。