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Urban and rural survivorship in Pre- and Post-Black Death Denmark
Journal of Archaeological Science: Reports Pub Date : 2021-06-23 , DOI: 10.1016/j.jasrep.2021.103089
Saige Kelmelis , Sharon N. DeWitte

Research on the survival of people in Pre- and Post-Black Death London revealed declines in survival prior to the epidemic, and improvements in survival afterwards. This study expands upon previous research by examining whether these trends are also observed in medieval Danish populations. Analyses were done using a sample of 877 individuals excavated from six cemeteries from urban and rural sites in medieval Denmark (c. AD 1050-1536), which includes individuals who were buried within three temporal periods based on relative dating from arm position in the grave: pre-Black Death (c. AD 1050-1250), epidemic years that include the Black Death and preceding famine years (c. AD 1250-1400), and post-Black Death (c. AD 1400-1536) years. Temporal trends in survivorship were assessed using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. Survival analyses were also used to examine the effect of urbanization on survivorship over time. Fertility proxies were estimated to control for changes in birth rates in the interpretation of our results. The results indicate a general increase in survival after the Black Death, especially for nonadults (Mantel-Cox p = 0.10) in the absence of a fertility effect. Urban dwellers experienced significant improvements in survivorship after the Black Death (p = 0.04). Analysis of Pre-Black Death survivorship reveals elevated survival for rural adults and urban nonadults, indicating that urban environments may have been more detrimental to adults than nonadults before the epidemic. These results are consistent with previous findings from London, demonstrating that survival and mortality were significantly different between the periods leading up to and after the plague, and there were differential risks for adults and nonadults in urban and rural settings.



中文翻译:

丹麦黑死病前后的城乡幸存者

对黑死病前和黑死病后伦敦人们生存情况的研究表明,在流行之前生存率下降,而后生存率有所提高。本研究通过检查是否在中世纪丹麦人口中也观察到这些趋势来扩展先前的研究。使用从中世纪丹麦(约公元 1050-1536 年)城市和乡村遗址的六个墓地中挖掘出的 877 人样本进行分析,其中包括根据坟墓中手臂位置的相对年代,在三个时间段内埋葬的人: 黑死病前 (c. AD 1050-1250),流行年包括黑死病和之前的饥荒年 (c. AD 1250-1400),以及黑死病后 (c. AD 1400-1536) 年。使用 Kaplan-Meier 生存分析评估生存的时间趋势。生存分析还用于检查城市化对生存率随时间的影响。在解释我们的结果时,估计生育率可以控制出生率的变化。结果表明黑死病后生存率普遍增加,特别是对于非成年人(Mantel-Coxp  = 0.10) 在没有生育效应的情况下。黑死病后城市居民的生存率显着提高(p  = 0.04)。对黑死病前幸存者的分析显示,农村成年人和城市非成年人的生存率提高,表明在流行之前,城市环境对成年人的危害可能比非成年人更大。这些结果与伦敦之前的研究结果一致,表明鼠疫前后期间的存活率和死亡率存在显着差异,城市和农村环境中成人和非成人的风险存在差异。

更新日期:2021-06-23
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