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Surprising Drought Tolerance of Fir (Abies) Species between Past Climatic Adaptation and Future Projections Reveals New Chances for Adaptive Forest Management
Forests ( IF 2.9 ) Pub Date : 2021-06-22 , DOI: 10.3390/f12070821
Csaba Mátyás , František Beran , Jaroslav Dostál , Jiří Čáp , Martin Fulín , Monika Vejpustková , Gregor Božič , Pál Balázs , Josef Frýdl

Research Highlights: Data of advanced-age provenance tests were reanalyzed applying a new approach, to directly estimate the growth of populations at their original sites under individually generated future climates. The results revealed the high resilience potential of fir species. Background and Objectives: The growth and survival of silver fir under future climatic scenarios are insufficiently investigated at the xeric limits. The selective signature of past climate determining the current and projected growth was investigated to analyze the prospects of adaptive silviculture and assisted transfer of silver fir populations, and the introduction of non-autochthonous species. Materials and Methods: Hargreaves’ climatic moisture deficit was selected to model height responses of adult populations. Climatic transfer distance was used to assess the relative drought stress of populations at the test site, relating these to the past conditions to which the populations had adapted. ClimateEU and ClimateWNA pathway RCP8.5 data served to determine individually past, current, and future moisture deficit conditions. Besides silver fir, other fir species from South Europe and the American Northwest were also tested. Results: Drought tolerance profiles explained the responses of transferred provenances and predicted their future performance and survival. Silver fir displayed significant within-species differentiation regarding drought stress response. Applying the assumed drought tolerance limit of 100 mm relative moisture deficit, most of the tested silver fir populations seem to survive their projected climate at their origin until the end of the century. Survival is likely also for transferred Balkan fir species and for grand fir populations, but not for the Mediterranean species. Conclusions: The projections are less dramatic than provided by usual inventory assessments, considering also the resilience of populations. The method fills the existing gap between experimentally determined adaptive response and the predictions needed for management decisions. It also underscores the unique potential of provenance tests.

中文翻译:

过去气候适应和未来预测之间的冷杉(冷杉)物种令人惊讶的耐旱性揭示了适应性森林管理的新机会

研究亮点:应用新方法重新分析高龄物源测试数据,以直接估计在单独生成的未来气候下原始地点的人口增长。结果揭示了冷杉物种的高恢复潜力。背景和目的:在干旱极限下,对未来气候情景下银杉的生长和存活的研究不够充分。对决定当前和预计增长的过去气候的选择性特征进行了研究,以分析适应性造林和银杉种群辅助转移的前景,以及非本地物种的引入。材料和方法:选择 Hargreaves 的气候水分亏缺来模拟成年人群的身高反应。气候转移距离用于评估测试地点种群的相对干旱压力,将这些与种群适应的过去条件联系起来。ClimateEUClimateWNA路径 RCP8.5 数据用于单独确定过去、当前和未来的水分亏缺状况。除了银杉外,还测试了来自南欧和美国西北部的其他冷杉物种。结果:耐旱性概况解释了转移来源的反应,并预测了它们未来的表现和生存。银杉在干旱胁迫响应方面表现出显着的种内分化。应用假定的 100 毫米相对水分亏缺的耐旱极限,大多数测试的银杉种群似乎在其起源地预测的气候中存活到本世纪末。转移的巴尔干冷杉物种和大冷杉种群也可能存活,但地中海物种则不然。结论:考虑到人口的复原力,这些预测不如通常的清单评估提供的那么引人注目。该方法填补了实验确定的适应性反应与管理决策所需的预测之间的现有差距。
更新日期:2021-06-22
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